據(jù)安迅思12月23日消息稱，國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)(IEA)周二表示，需求放緩和供應(yīng)增加可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致 2022 年第一和第二季度的石油供需平衡更加舒適。
該機(jī)構(gòu)在發(fā)布月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告時(shí)表示:“預(yù)計(jì)新冠肺炎病例的激增將減緩全球石油需求的復(fù)蘇，其中航空旅行和航空燃油受到的影響最大。自去年11月報(bào)告以來(lái)，國(guó)際能源署將2021年和2022年的平均石油需求下調(diào)了約10萬(wàn)桶/天。
“在美國(guó)和歐佩克+國(guó)家的增長(zhǎng)帶動(dòng)下，全球石油產(chǎn)量有望從 12 月開始超過(guò)需求，”IEA補(bǔ)充說(shuō)。
“隨著這種上升趨勢(shì)延續(xù)到 2022 年，美國(guó)、加拿大和巴西的年產(chǎn)量似乎將達(dá)到有史以來(lái)的最高水平，從而在2022年將非歐佩克+國(guó)家的總產(chǎn)量提高180萬(wàn)桶/天。如果歐佩克+的剩余削減完全解除，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯也可能創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄。在這種情況下，明年全球石油供應(yīng)將增加640萬(wàn)桶/天，而2021年僅增加150萬(wàn)桶/天。”
IEA 的最新報(bào)告顯示，全球石油需求將在2021年增加540萬(wàn)桶/天，在2022年增加330萬(wàn)桶/天，使其達(dá)到大流行前的水平9950萬(wàn)桶/天。
IEA補(bǔ)充稱:“隨著2021年接近尾聲，石油市場(chǎng)的基礎(chǔ)似乎比一段時(shí)間以來(lái)更好。”
朱佳妮 摘譯自 安迅思
原文如下：
More comfortable crude oil supply/demand balances expected for Q1/Q2 2022 – IEA
Slowing demand and greater availability could lead to a more comfortable oil supply/demand balance in the first and second quarters of 2022, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
“A surge in new COVID cases is expected to slow the recovery in global oil demand, with air travel and jet fuel most affected,” the agency said on the publication of its monthly oil market report. The IEA revised average oil demand down since its November report, by about 100,000 bbl/day for both 2021 and 2022.
“Global oil production is poised to outpace demand from December, led by growth in the US and OPEC+ countries,” it added.
“As this upward trend extends into 2022, the US, Canada and Brazil look set to pump at their highest ever annual levels, lifting overall non-OPEC+ output by 1.8 mb/d in 2022. Saudi Arabia and Russia could also hit records if remaining OPEC+ cuts are fully unwound. In that case, global supply would soar by 6.4 mb/d next year compared with a 1.5 mb/d rise in 2021.”
The IEA’s latest report suggests that global oil demand will rise by 5.4m bbl/day in 2021 and by 3.3m bbl/day in 2022, taking it to pre-pandemic levels of 99.5m bbl/day.
“As 2021 draws to a close, the oil market appears to stand on a better footing than it has for some time,” the IEA added.
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