據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年7月27日?qǐng)?bào)道，全球煉油工業(yè)還沒有從新冠肺炎疫情大流行的影響中恢復(fù)過來，但它已經(jīng)面臨能源轉(zhuǎn)型的長(zhǎng)期巨大挑戰(zhàn)。

　　未來15年，全球燃料需求可能會(huì)下降，導(dǎo)致煉油市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)能過剩、煉油利潤(rùn)率下降和利用率降低。

　　不同地區(qū)的前景各不相同。 不過，麥肯錫公司在本月發(fā)布的《2035年全球下游展望》報(bào)告中說，總體而言，由于需求下降和不必要的全球產(chǎn)能高企，煉油利潤(rùn)面臨下行壓力，一些效率較低的煉油廠將不得不關(guān)閉。

　　麥肯錫公司的展望報(bào)告在三種不同的政策情景下考察了全球液體需求，以及需求對(duì)全球和不同地區(qū)煉油廠的影響。 麥肯錫公司指出，在一些地區(qū)，煉油工業(yè)可能會(huì)萎縮，但仍將是一個(gè)很大的行業(yè)，到本世紀(jì)30年代可能會(huì)保持2019年運(yùn)營(yíng)能力的90%。

　　就像從COVID-19中恢復(fù)一樣，下游行業(yè)的長(zhǎng)期前景將因情景和地區(qū)而異。 總會(huì)有贏家和輸家。

　　參考案例——500萬桶/天的煉油廠關(guān)閉，價(jià)值縮水35%

　　麥肯錫公司的參考案例，《能源轉(zhuǎn)型》認(rèn)為，到2035年前，歐洲和美國(guó)可能需要永久關(guān)閉每天多達(dá)500萬桶的煉油產(chǎn)能。在這個(gè)案例中，未來的政策將遵循當(dāng)前的模式。 麥肯錫公司表示，大約一半的關(guān)閉項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)宣布。

　　在麥肯錫公司的能源轉(zhuǎn)型方案中，全球液體需求將在2029年達(dá)到峰值，達(dá)到1.04億桶/天，道路運(yùn)輸燃料需求將在2023年達(dá)到峰值。 一旦煉油廠實(shí)現(xiàn)合理化，煉油利潤(rùn)率將恢復(fù)，但2031-2035年美國(guó)和歐洲的煉油利潤(rùn)率仍將比近期歷史水平低約2美元/桶。 如果能源和氣候政策遵循當(dāng)前模式，到本世紀(jì)30年代，全球煉油價(jià)值將較2015-19年的水平下降36%，2031-35年的全球平均水平預(yù)計(jì)將為1000億美元。 麥肯錫公司表示，在本世紀(jì)30年代，只有亞洲和中東的煉油工業(yè)價(jià)值將出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)。

　　這一評(píng)估與其他能源專家和顧問此前的估計(jì)基本一致。他們認(rèn)為，亞洲和中東地區(qū)的煉油廠，尤其是較新的綜合性煉油企業(yè)，將擊敗那些預(yù)計(jì)在能源轉(zhuǎn)型中燃料需求彈性較差的國(guó)家的老煉油廠。

　　伍德麥肯茲7月稍早曾表示，如果全球煉油工業(yè)不能看到廣泛的進(jìn)一步合理化，煉油工業(yè)的產(chǎn)能利用率可能永遠(yuǎn)無法回到80%的產(chǎn)能利用率。

　　當(dāng)前的危機(jī)對(duì)歐洲和亞洲效率較低的小型煉油廠構(gòu)成了生死攸關(guān)的威脅，這些煉油廠甚至在疫情前就在艱難地實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利。 即使是石油巨頭也承認(rèn)，由于煉油利潤(rùn)率下降、地區(qū)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈以及長(zhǎng)期道路燃料需求下降的預(yù)期，一些煉油廠已經(jīng)永遠(yuǎn)失去了經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。 例如，埃克森美孚公司和英國(guó)石油公司在短短幾個(gè)月內(nèi)先后宣布關(guān)閉各自在澳大利亞的煉油廠。 他們現(xiàn)在計(jì)劃將這些煉油廠改造成燃料進(jìn)口終端。

　　麥肯錫公司稱，雖然歐洲和美國(guó)短期內(nèi)可能會(huì)更快地從疫情影響中恢復(fù)過來，但從長(zhǎng)期來看，亞洲煉油企業(yè)將更具韌性。 從整體上看，參考案例發(fā)現(xiàn)，煉油工業(yè)仍將是一個(gè)大行業(yè)，但其盈利能力將會(huì)下降。

　　推遲轉(zhuǎn)型將使煉油廠價(jià)值達(dá)到1810億美元

　　麥肯錫公司表示，如果COVID - 19帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇優(yōu)先于減排，且能源轉(zhuǎn)型放緩，全球液體需求將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)至2035年，輕質(zhì)石油產(chǎn)品需求將在2029年達(dá)到峰值。

　　煉油廠利用率將保持強(qiáng)勁，亞洲和中東地區(qū)甚至將增加130萬桶/天的煉油產(chǎn)能。 2031-2035年，亞洲和中東地區(qū)的煉油工業(yè)價(jià)值也將增長(zhǎng)16%，達(dá)到全球平均1810億美元。

　　加速轉(zhuǎn)型將導(dǎo)致1600萬桶/天的煉油廠關(guān)閉

　　麥肯錫公司的分析報(bào)告顯示，如果這個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)型加速，全球液體需求將在2024年達(dá)到1.01億桶/天的峰值，而輕質(zhì)石油產(chǎn)品需求將永遠(yuǎn)無法恢復(fù)到2019年的水平。 在這種情況下，到2035年前，所有市場(chǎng)，特別是歐洲和美國(guó)，將需要在未宣布的情況下關(guān)閉多達(dá)1600萬桶/天的煉油能力。 在這種情況下，與2015-2019年的水平相比，到本世紀(jì)30年代，煉油工業(yè)的價(jià)值將下降到74%，2031-2035年的全球平均水平預(yù)計(jì)將在400億美元。

　　實(shí)際情況可能會(huì)接近參考案例，或者是麥肯錫公司研究的兩三個(gè)案例的結(jié)合。

　　無論如何，有些事情是肯定的——煉油商需要時(shí)間來克服COVID-19的沖擊。 與此同時(shí)，他們將為能源轉(zhuǎn)型的長(zhǎng)期影響做好準(zhǔn)備。 煉油廠應(yīng)該做好準(zhǔn)備，適應(yīng)長(zhǎng)期煉油利潤(rùn)率下降、行業(yè)合理化、數(shù)百萬桶/天產(chǎn)能關(guān)閉和長(zhǎng)期利潤(rùn)下降。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Refiners Face Huge Long-Term Challenges

　　The global refining industry has not recovered yet from the impact of the pandemic, but it is already facing longer-term challenges with the energy transition.

　　Over the next decade and a half, global fuel demand will likely decline, leading to an overcapacity in the refining market, lower margins, and lower utilization.

　　The outlook varies across regions. Generally speaking, however, some less efficient refineries will have to close because of downward pressure on profits amid lower demand and unnecessary high global capacity, McKinsey & Company said in its report ‘Global downstream outlook to 2035’ published this month.

　　The outlook examines global liquids demand in three different policy scenarios and the impact that demand would have on refiners globally and in various regions. The refining industry is likely to shrink in some regions, but it will still remain a large sector that would likely keep in the 2030s as much as 90 percent of its 2019 operating capacity, McKinsey & Company noted.

　　Just as with the recovery from COVID-19, the long-term prospects of the downstream sector will vary across scenarios and regions. There will be winners and losers.

　　Reference Case – 5 Million Bpd Refinery Closures, 35% Shrinking Value

　　McKinsey’s reference case, Energy Transition, in which future policies will follow current patterns, finds that Europe and the U.S. may need to shut down permanently as much as 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of capacity by 2035. Roughly half of those closures have already been announced, the company said.

　　In McKinsey’s Energy Transition scenario, global liquids demand peaks in 2029 at 104 million bpd, with road transport fuels peaking in 2023. Refining margins are set to recover once refinery rationalization occurs, but U.S. and European margins will be around $2 a barrel lower in 2031–2035 than in recent history. If energy and climate policies follow current patterns, the value of global refining is set to drop by 36 percent from 2015–19 levels by the 2030s, with the 2031–35 global average at $100 billion. During the 2030s, only Asia and the Middle East will see its refining industry grow in value, according to McKinsey.

　　This assessment is generally in line with previous estimates from other energy experts and consultants who say that Asia and the Middle East, especially the newer integrated refining complexes, will beat older refineries in countries where fuel demand is expected to be less resilient in the energy transition.

　　If the global refinery industry doesn’t see extensive further rationalization, the sector may never return to 80 percent capacity utilization, Wood MacKenzie said earlier this month.

　　The current crisis is an existential threat to smaller and less efficient refineries in Europe and Asia that were struggling to turn profits even before the pandemic. Even oil majors acknowledge that some sites have become permanently uneconomical amid depressed refining margins, fierce regional competition, and expectations of declining road fuel demand in the long term. For example, ExxonMobil and BP announced in the span of just a few months closures of their respective refineries in Australia. They now plan to convert them into fuel import terminals.

　　According to McKinsey, while Europe and the U.S. could recover faster from the pandemic impact in the short term, Asia’s refiners will be more resilient in the long term. As a whole, the reference case found that the industry will remain a large one, but it will become less profitable.

　　Delayed Transition To Grow Refinery Value To $181 Billion

　　If economic recovery from COVID takes precedence over emissions reduction and the energy transition slows down, global liquids demand will continue to grow through 2035, with light product demand peaking in 2029, McKinsey says.

　　Utilization will remain strong, and Asia and the Middle East will even add 1.3 million bpd of capacity. Asia and the Middle East will also drive a 16 percent rise in value in the refining industry to a global average of $181 billion in 2031–2035.

　　Accelerated Transition To Lead To 16 Million Bpd Refinery Closures

　　If the transition accelerates, it would bring about peak global liquids demand in 2024 at 101 million bpd, while light product demand will never recover to 2019 levels, McKinsey’s analysis shows. In this case, all markets, especially Europe and the United States, would require as much as 16 million bpd of unannounced closures by 2035. In this case, the value of the refining industry would plunge in the 2030s to 74 percent compared with 2015–2019 levels, at $40 billion global average in 2031–2035.

　　The actual scenario that will unfold could be close to the reference case or a combination of two or three of those examined by McKinsey.

　　At any rate, some things are certain—refiners will take time to overcome the COVID-19 shock. At the same time, they will be bracing for the long-term impact of the energy transition. Refiners should be ready to adapt to lower long-term refining margins, industry rationalization with millions of bpd of capacity closures, and a long-term decline in profits.

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