據油價網2021年8月12日報道，歐佩克8月12日表示，今年全球石油日需求量預計平均9660萬桶，2022年下半年將突破1億桶大關。盡管Covid-19在主要經濟體死灰復燃，但歐佩克仍維持一個月前的預測不變 。

　　在其最新一期的月度石油市場報告(MOMR)中，歐佩克上調了其對2021年和2022年全球經濟增長的預測，但仍維持7月對全球石油需求的預測不變，預計經濟復蘇將主要發生在非石油密集型行業。 今年和明年的全球經濟增長率預測上調了0.1個百分點，歐佩克目前預計2021年的全球經濟增長率為5.6%，2022年的增長率為4.2%。

　　“然而，仍然存在許多挑戰，很容易抑制這一增長勢頭。 特別是，未來幾個月需要密切監測與Covid -19相關的事態發展，特別是考慮到北半球臨近年底通常會出現更冷的天氣。”

　　歐佩克表示，明年全球石油日需求量平均為9990萬桶，2022年下半年將超過1億桶。 這將歸功于預計將促進經濟增長的大規模刺激計劃，以及在疫苗接種計劃和改善治療的支持下，疫情將得到控制的預期。

　　在維持需求預測不變的同時，歐佩克大幅提高了對非歐佩克國家供應增長的預測，今年將增加27萬桶/天，2022年將大幅增加84萬桶/天。 此次上調需求預期是因為歐佩克+協議，包括非歐佩克國家俄羅斯在內的聯盟成員將通過每月向市場增加40萬桶/天來解除剩余的減產。 歐佩克表示，除了俄羅斯和歐佩克+協議的其他非歐佩克成員國，美國和加拿大將是提高非歐佩克原油供應量的主要推動因素。 預計美國將在2021年增加12萬桶/天的供應量，在2022年增加80萬桶/天。

　　歐佩克的報告顯示，在2021年7月的產量方面，歐佩克的原油產量平均為2666萬桶/天，增加了64萬桶/天，這要歸功于沙特阿拉伯的大幅增產，這是沙特取消了其額外減產100萬桶/天的最后一部分。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價網

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC Sees Oil Demand At 100 Million Bpd Next Year Despite COVID Surge

　　Global oil demand is expected to average 96.6 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and exceed 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022, OPEC said on Thursday, keeping its estimates from a month ago unchanged despite the COVID resurgence in major economies, including China and the United States.

　　In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the organization raised its estimates for global economic growth for both 2021 and 2022, but left unchanged last month’s forecasts for global oil demand, expecting the economic recovery to take place mainly in non-oil intensive sectors. Global economic growth forecasts for this year and next were revised up by 0.1 percentage point, with OPEC now expecting growth for 2021 at 5.6 percent and growth in 2022 at 4.2 percent.

　　“However, numerous challenges remain that could easily dampen this momentum. In particular, COVID-19-related developments will need close monitoring over the coming months, especially when considering the usual colder weather in the northern hemisphere towards the end of the year,” the cartel said.

　　Next year, global oil demand is set to average 99.9 million bpd, and to exceed 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022, OPEC said. This will be thanks to massive stimulus packages expected to raise economic growth and to expectations that the COVID-19 pandemic will be under control, supported by vaccination programs and improved treatment.

　　While leaving demand forecasts unchanged, OPEC significantly raised its estimates for non-OPEC supply growth, by 270,000 bpd for 2021 and by a massive 840,000 bpd for 2022. The upward revisions were made because of the OPEC+ deal which will see the alliance including non-OPEC Russia unwind their remaining cuts, by adding 400,000 bpd to the market each month. Apart from Russia and other non-OPEC members of the OPEC+ pact, the key drivers of higher non-OPEC supply will be the United States and Canada, OPEC said. The U.S. is now expected to raise its supply by 120,000 bpd annually in 2021 and by 800,000 bpd year-on-year in 2022.

　　In terms of July 2021 production, OPEC’s crude oil production averaged 26.66 million bpd, up by 640,000 bpd, thanks to a large increase from Saudi Arabia which unwind the last part of its extra 1-million-bpd cut, OPEC’s report showed.

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