據經濟時報7月15日消息：歐佩克堅持其對2021年剩余時間全球石油需求強勁復蘇的預測，并預計在中國和印度的增長帶動下，2022年石油消費量將進一步上升，增幅與疫情前類似。

　　歐佩克在其月度報告中表示，明年的石油需求將增長3.4%，達到9986萬桶/天，到2022年下半年，日均需求量將超過1億桶。

　　根據歐佩克的數據，2019年石油需求平均為9998萬桶/天。

　　“到2022年，除了通過加快疫苗接種計劃、有效治療和自然免疫(特別是在新興國家和發展中國家)以及頻繁的檢測程序來改善對COVID-19的控制外，對全球經濟增長的健康預期，將刺激明年的石油消費達到疫情前的水平，”歐佩克在報告中表示。

　　該報告反映出歐佩克對全球需求將從疫情中強勁復蘇的信心，使該組織及其盟友能夠進一步放寬2020年制定的創紀錄的供應限制。一些分析師認為石油需求曾在2019年見頂。

　　歐佩克還維持了2021年石油需求將增長595萬桶/天的預測。

　　歐佩克報告發布之前，油價跌破74美元/桶。在歐佩克及其盟友(歐佩克+)減產的幫助下，今年迄今為止油價已上漲40%以上。

　　今年4月，歐佩克+同意從5月到7月逐步放松減產，但由于沙特和阿聯酋之間的爭端中斷了談判，目前尚未就2021年剩余時間的計劃作出決定。路透社周三報道稱，雙方已達成妥協。

　　周四的報告顯示歐佩克石油產量增加，反映了該組織增產的決定。歐佩克稱，6月石油產量增加59萬桶/天，至2603萬桶/天。

　　馮娟 摘譯自 經濟時報

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC sees world oil demand reaching pre-pandemic level in 2022

　　OPEC stuck to its forecast for a strong recovery in world oil demand in the rest of 2021 and predicted oil use would rise further in 2022 similar to pre-pandemic rates, led by growth in China and India.

　　The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report on Thursday that demand next year would rise by 3.4% to 99.86 million barrels per day (bpd), averaging more than 100 million bpd in the second half of 2022.

　　Oil demand averaged 99.98 million bpd in 2019, according to OPEC.

　　"In 2022, healthy expectations for global economic growth in addition to improved containment of COVID-19 through the acceleration of vaccination programmes, effective treatment and natural immunisation, particularly in emerging and developing countries, along with frequent testing procedures, are assumed to spur consumption of oil next year to comparable pre-pandemic levels," OPEC said in the report.

　　The report reflected OPEC's confidence that world demand would recover robustly from the pandemic, allowing the group and its allies to further ease record supply curbs made in 2020. Some analysts had seen oil demand peaking in 2019.

　　OPEC also maintained its prediction that demand would grow by 5.95 million bpd in 2021.

　　Oil was trading just below $74 a barrel before the OPEC report was released. The price has climbed more than 40% so far this year with the help of supply cuts by OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC+.

　　OPEC+ agreed in April to gradually ease output cuts from May to July and has yet to decide on plans for the rest of 2021 after a dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates disrupted talks. Reuters reported on Wednesday that the two had reached a compromise.

　　Thursday's report showed higher OPEC oil output, reflecting the decision to pump more. Output in June rose 590,000 bpd to 26.03 million bpd, OPEC said.

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