美國頁巖油公司缺乏資金。

　　對于綠色能源市場導(dǎo)致化石燃料消耗增加的問題，Young斷言，石油和天然氣需求既沒有見頂，也不會很快見頂。

　　Young表示：“主要石油公司逃離市場只會推高價(jià)格，而不會減少需求?！?/p>

　　他以煤炭市場的動(dòng)態(tài)為例。

　　Young表示：“印度和其他國家的煤炭使用量大幅上升，并有望保持這一趨勢。另一方面，加州的煤炭使用量并沒有減少，需求持平。這怎么可能?水泥和瀝青只是繼續(xù)使用化石燃料的兩個(gè)罪魁禍?zhǔn)住]有化石燃料，就不可能有新的建筑。還有許多其他因素，我們很快就會公布這些數(shù)據(jù)。加州也是全美最高的千瓦時(shí)(計(jì)費(fèi)單位消費(fèi)者)，但沒有減少消費(fèi)?！?/p>

　　他指出，公司的研究團(tuán)隊(duì)也在研究電動(dòng)汽車(EV)的數(shù)量，他認(rèn)為，考慮到電動(dòng)汽車的總成本，削弱了其對內(nèi)燃機(jī)汽車的吸引力。

　　Young表示：“我們看到數(shù)據(jù)顯示，沒有足夠的稀土礦物來生產(chǎn)汽車所需的電池。世界人口已經(jīng)習(xí)慣了‘隨心所欲的交通工具’?！叭绻妱?dòng)汽車的價(jià)格包括充電和更換電池的成本，這將不會改變他們目前的行為模式?！?/p>

　　在談到美國頁巖油公司資本不足的問題時(shí)，Young提到了近年來石油和天然氣市場出現(xiàn)的“幾個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素”。

　　他表示:“首先，投資者要求他們獲得投資回報(bào)，而不是更換儲備替代品。在過去十年里，石油和天然氣公司只能替代部分已探明儲量。因此，投資者對長期投資失去了興趣。然后出現(xiàn)了“更環(huán)?！钡耐顿Y者。有一種趨勢是，上市石油公司會受到反石油和天然氣投資者的攻擊，導(dǎo)致董事會成員被那些可能不符合利益相關(guān)者最佳利益的人取代。在當(dāng)前的世界心態(tài)下，投資者不想挑起爭端；他們只想要輕松的回報(bào)?！?/p>

　　裘寅 編譯自 Rigzone

　　原文如下：

　　What's Missing from Oil Prices?

　　The world’s two leading oil price benchmarks are omitting some important considerations, the head of a privately held Dallas-based oil and gas operator told Rigzone last week.

　　“The recent Saudi Arabia and UAE deal kept the OPEC and OPEC+ organizations at the forefront of supply discussions,” remarked Jay Young, founder and CEO of King Operation Corp. “The shorter impact of having the 400,000 barrels per day coming back online is not a significant amount and will not impact the pricing factor in the short run. The market is listening to multiple experts using different metrics with different outcomes.”

　　According to Young, oil demand will continue to go up even with the new COVID-19 Delta variant. However, he contends that two key issues – often ignored in other commodity pricing methodologies – need to be calculated into the Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil benchmarks:

　　increased fossil fuel usage as the energy market becomes “greener”

　　U.S. shale oil firms’ lack of capital.

　　Regarding the issue of greater fossil fuel consumption from a greener energy market, Young asserts that oil and gas demand has neither peaked nor will do so anytime soon.

　　“The major oil companies fleeing the market will only drive the price up, not reduce the demand,” Young said.

　　He cited dynamics in the coal market as a case in point.

　　“Coal usage in India, and other countries is way up and looks to keep that trend going,” said Young. “On the other hand, coal usage in California has not decreased, and demand is flat. How is that possible? Cement and asphalt are only two of the culprits for the continued use of fossil fuels. You can’t have new construction without fossil fuels. There are many other factors, and we will be publishing the numbers soon. California is also the highest kilowatt-hour (billing unit consumer) in the country while not decreasing consumption.”

　　Noting that his company’s research team is also examining electric vehicle (EV) numbers, Young argues that considering the total cost of EV ownership weakens its appeal over vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.

　　“We see data that shows there are not enough rare earth minerals to produce the batteries for the number of cars required,” Young said. “The world’s population has gotten used to ‘transportation at will.’ It will not change their current behavior patterns when the price for EVs is calculated with charging and battery replacement costs.”

　　On the issue of insufficient capital among U.S. shale oil firms, Young referenced what he calls “several key factors” that have occurred in recent years in the oil and gas market.

　　“First, investors demanded that they get returns on their investments rather than replace their reserve replacements,” Young said. “Over the past ten years, oil and gas companies could replace only a portion of their proved reserves. As a result, investors lost their appetite for long-term investments. Then along came the ‘greener’ investors. There is a trend for public oil companies to be attacked by anti-oil and gas investors, resulting in replacing board members with those that may not have the stakeholder’s best interest. Investors don’t want to pick a fight in the current world mindset; they just want no-hassle returns.”