據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)6月18日消息：歐佩克消息人士在該組織政策會(huì)議結(jié)束時(shí)表示，盡管油價(jià)高達(dá)70美元，但預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油生產(chǎn)商今年不會(huì)大幅提高原油產(chǎn)量，因?yàn)樗鼈儗⒗^續(xù)專注于規(guī)范的資本支出，并向投資者返還更多現(xiàn)金。

　　歐佩克經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)智囊團(tuán)經(jīng)濟(jì)委員會(huì)本周召開(kāi)會(huì)議，評(píng)估全球石油市場(chǎng)和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)。該委員會(huì)還將審查投資、復(fù)蘇預(yù)期、原油生產(chǎn)的短期和長(zhǎng)期前景等議題。

　　歐佩克消息人士稱，其中一次會(huì)議有外部行業(yè)專家參加，會(huì)議的重點(diǎn)是美國(guó)頁(yè)巖和美國(guó)以外的供應(yīng)前景。普遍的觀點(diǎn)是，盡管油價(jià)高企，但頁(yè)巖地區(qū)不會(huì)急于加快活動(dòng)和生產(chǎn)率，從而導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)供過(guò)于求和油價(jià)下跌。

　　預(yù)計(jì)2022年的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)將在50萬(wàn)桶/天至130萬(wàn)桶/天之間。

　　近幾個(gè)月來(lái)，美國(guó)石油日產(chǎn)量一直徘徊在1,100萬(wàn)桶左右，較2020年初的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高點(diǎn)下降了200萬(wàn)桶。

　　美國(guó)頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)商第一季度財(cái)報(bào)和電話會(huì)議突顯出此前聞所未聞的上市公司的克制。上市生產(chǎn)商創(chuàng)造了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的現(xiàn)金流，但他們并沒(méi)有將其中大部分再投資于鉆探。相反，頁(yè)巖運(yùn)營(yíng)商現(xiàn)在正將現(xiàn)金流用于減少債務(wù)和回報(bào)股東。

　　據(jù)消息人士稱，投資紀(jì)律是本周會(huì)議的重點(diǎn)之一。

　　如果今年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有限的預(yù)測(cè)能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)，那么美國(guó)對(duì)頁(yè)巖氣的限制將使歐佩克管理石油市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)的工作變得容易得多。

　　其中一家向歐佩克提供預(yù)測(cè)的公司的消息人士稱：“歐佩克和沙特阿拉伯目前擁有很大的權(quán)力。”

　　馮娟 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC Doesn’t Expect More U.S. Shale Oil Production

　　Despite $70 oil, U.S. shale producers are not expected to significantly raise crude production this year as they continue to be focused on disciplined capital expenditures and returning more cash to investors, OPEC sources told Reuters at the end of policy meetings of the organization.

　　OPEC’s economic and technical think-tank, the Economic Commission Board, met this week to take stock of the situation on the global oil market and the global economy. The board was also expected to review topics such as investment, expectations about recovery, and short- and long-term prospects of crude oil production.

　　One of the meetings, attended by external industry experts, focused on U.S. shale and the prospects of supply out of the United States, sources at OPEC told Reuters. The general view was that the shale patch will not be rushing into accelerating activity and production rates despite the high oil prices—something it has regularly done in the past, contributing to market oversupply and lower oil prices.

　　For 2022, the views range from production growth of between 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 1.3 million bpd.

　　U.S. production has been hovering at around 11 million bpd in recent months, down by 2 million bpd from the record highs early in 2020, before the pandemic slammed demand and crashed oil prices.

　　The first-quarter earnings and conference calls of U.S. producers highlighted a previously unheard-of restraint from public shale firms. Listed producers generated record cash flows, but they are not reinvesting most of those back to drilling. Instead, shale operators are now channeling cash flow toward reducing debts and rewarding shareholders.

　　According to Reuters’ sources, the investment discipline was one of the highlights of the meetings this week.

　　The U.S. shale restraint makes OPEC’s job of managing oil supply to the market much easier, if forecasts of limited U.S. growth this year pan out.

　　“OPEC and Saudi Arabia have a lot of power at this time,” a source at one of the companies which provided forecasts to OPEC told Reuters.

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