據(jù)安迅思6月15日消息稱，在6月15日舉行的歐洲氫骨干(EHB)活動(dòng)上，市場(chǎng)參與者表示，到2050年，歐洲和英國(guó)的綠色和藍(lán)色氫供應(yīng)可能超過(guò)預(yù)期需求。
咨詢公司Guidehouse的Dean Peters在他的報(bào)告中稱，到2050年，歐盟和英國(guó)的氫需求預(yù)計(jì)將平均為2150 -2750太瓦時(shí)，相當(dāng)于歐盟和英國(guó)最終能源消耗的20-25%。
與此同時(shí)，據(jù)Guidehouse的Kees van der Leun稱，歐盟和英國(guó)的綠色氫供應(yīng)潛力將逐步上升，到2030年達(dá)到450太瓦時(shí)，2040年達(dá)到2100太瓦時(shí)，2050年達(dá)到4000太瓦時(shí)。
小組成員認(rèn)為，要達(dá)到綠色氫供應(yīng)的潛力，就必須迅速擴(kuò)大風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電的容量，超過(guò)直接發(fā)電所需的容量。
為了滿足綠色氫的預(yù)計(jì)需求，可再生能源到2050年必須生產(chǎn)2900 - 3800太瓦時(shí)。
歐洲也可以生產(chǎn)大量的藍(lán)色氫。
到2040年，該網(wǎng)絡(luò)將覆蓋愛(ài)爾蘭到匈牙利，或從西班牙到北歐國(guó)家。從2040年開(kāi)始，EHB注意到大規(guī)模可再生能源產(chǎn)能的潛在成熟度。例如，到2050年，北海海上風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量有望達(dá)到180吉瓦。
如果該管道重新調(diào)整用途，供應(yīng)將通過(guò)丹麥和波蘭之間的波羅的海天然氣管道進(jìn)行，該管道的長(zhǎng)期天然氣合同將于2037年到期。
綠色氫在歐盟/英國(guó)的成本潛力也很大。到2050年，所有4000太瓦時(shí)的綠色氫能源的成本預(yù)計(jì)將低于2歐元/公斤。
市場(chǎng)參與者還表示，藍(lán)氫可以加快減排速度，并可以迅速擴(kuò)大規(guī)模。
van der Leun補(bǔ)充說(shuō):“到目前為止，宣布的藍(lán)氫項(xiàng)目到2030年將達(dá)到230太瓦時(shí)，到2035年達(dá)到380太瓦時(shí)，其中70%的產(chǎn)量來(lái)自英國(guó)和荷蘭。”
朱佳妮 摘譯自 安迅思
原文如下：
EU/UK hydrogen supply to surpass demand by 2050
European and UK green and blue hydrogen supply could exceed projected demand by 2050, said market participants at European Hydrogen Backbone (EHB) event on 15 June.
The EU and UK hydrogen demand is expected to be on average 2150-2750TWh corresponding to 20-25% of EU and UK final energy consumption by 2050, reported Dean Peters at consultancy firm Guidehouse in his presentation.
At the same time EU and UK green hydrogen supply potential is set for a gradual rise to 450TWh in 2030, 2,100TWh in 2040 and 4,000TWh in 2050, according to Kees van der Leun at Guidehouse.
Panellists argued that rapid expansion of wind and solar capacity, beyond what is needed for direct electricity, is required to reach the green hydrogen supply potential.
For the projected demand to be covered by green hydrogen only, renewables will have to produce 2,900-3,800TWh by 2050.
Europe can also produce large quantities of blue hydrogen.
By 2040 a network could span Ireland to Hungary or from Spain to the Nordic countries. It is from 2040 that the EHB notes the potential maturity of large-scale renewable capacity. For example, the North Sea has potential for 180GW of offshore wind power capacity to be installed by 2050.
Supply could flow via the Baltic gas pipeline between Denmark and Poland if the line were repurposed, with long-term natural gas contracts on the pipeline expiring by 2037.
Cost potential for green hydrogen in the EU/UK is also huge. All 4,000TWh green hydrogen potential in 2050 is expected to cost less than €2/kg.
Market participants also said blue hydrogen can speed up emission reductions and can be scaled up quickly.
“[Blue hydrogen] projects announced to date add up to 230TWh by 2030 and 380TWh by 2035 with 70% of these volumes coming from UK and the Netherlands,” added van der Leun.
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