據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)5月20日新德里報(bào)道，據(jù)伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mackenzie）的一份新報(bào)告稱，能源轉(zhuǎn)型為上游油氣行業(yè)價(jià)值14萬億美元的資產(chǎn)帶來不確定性。
石油需求可能還會(huì)繼續(xù)增長10年或更久。另一方面，如果世界各國采取果斷行動(dòng)，到2050年將全球變暖控制在2攝氏度以內(nèi)，石油需求和價(jià)格將在本十年后期迅速下降。
據(jù)伍德麥肯茲估計(jì)，上游行業(yè)未來的稅前估值將達(dá)到驚人的14萬億美元，從9萬億-23萬億美元不等。在稅后的基礎(chǔ)上，運(yùn)營商的經(jīng)濟(jì)租金份額從3萬億-9萬億美元不等。
伍德麥肯茲的副總裁弗雷澤·麥凱表示，該行業(yè)如今發(fā)現(xiàn)自己必須向一個(gè)未來需求和價(jià)格都高度不確定的世界供應(yīng)石油和天然氣。各種可能的結(jié)果令人眼花繚亂。但在未來幾十年里，世界仍將需要石油和天然氣供應(yīng)，該行業(yè)的規(guī)模仍將巨大。
隨著油氣行業(yè)的宏觀環(huán)境日益嚴(yán)峻，交付和規(guī)范對(duì)上游價(jià)值鏈的各個(gè)方面都至關(guān)重要。該報(bào)告稱，與預(yù)算和時(shí)間表相比，自上次經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷以來，業(yè)績顯著改善。
該行業(yè)需要繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持不懈地提高效率，降低成本，完美地交付項(xiàng)目。油氣公司需要向股東發(fā)出一個(gè)強(qiáng)烈的信號(hào)，即它們可以成為可靠的資本管理者。
郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)
原文如下：
Energy transition brings $14 trillion uncertainty for upstream oil and gas: WoodMac
The energy transition represents $14 trillion worth of uncertainty for upstream oil and gas, according to a new report by Wood Mackenzie.
Oil demand may continue to grow for another decade or more. On the other hand, if the world acts decisively to limit global warming to 2 Degree Celsius by 2050 oil demand and prices would fall rapidly later this decade.
Wood Mackenzie estimates the range of pre-tax future valuations for upstream is a staggering $14 trillion – from $9 trillion to $23 trillion. On a post-tax basis, operators’ share of this economic rent ranges from $3 trillion to $9 trillion.
“The industry now finds itself having to supply oil and gas to a world in which future demand – and price – are highly uncertain. The range of possible outcomes is dizzying. But the world will still need oil and gas supply for decades to come, and the scale of the industry will remain enormous,” WoodMac vice president Fraser McKay said.
Delivery and discipline are paramount in all aspects of the upstream value chain as the macro environment for oil and gas gets tougher. Performance against budgets and timelines has improved dramatically since the last downturn, the report said.
The industry needs to remain relentless in its push to improve efficiency, drive down costs and deliver projects flawlessly. Oil and gas companies need to send a strong signal to stakeholders that they can be reliable stewards of capital.
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