???? 據油價網2021年3月31日倫敦報道，分析師告訴路透社記者，盡管最近有跡象顯示，由于歐洲正在應對新冠肺炎疫情石油需求減弱，但原油期貨市場結構仍表明，今年下半年石油需求將開始超過供應。

????布倫特原油期貨即月價差在3月份轉至正價差，表明短期內需求減弱和石油供應過剩。

????上周，距離最近的5月份布倫特原油合約價格自今年1月以來首次低于下個月的6月份合約價格。期貨——即近月價格低于未來幾個月價格的結構——表明市場供過于求。只有最近的合約是正價差，但近幾天現貨溢價的疲軟加劇了對短期石油需求的擔憂。

????3月31日早些時候，5月份的原油期貨價格仍比6月份的原油期貨價格每桶上漲了0.15美元。

????然而，期貨曲線上剩余的合約仍處于現貨溢價狀態，市場的這種狀態表明供應趨緊，即期價格高于遠期價格。6個月期布倫特原油價差(5月和11月合約的價差)仍處于每桶2美元以上的深度現貨溢價，分析師表示，這繼續表明今年下半年石油市場將重新平衡，需求將開始超過供應。

????盡管最近歐洲主要經濟體重新封鎖導致庫存增加，但Energy Aspects的分析師仍然看好下半年石油需求復蘇的前景?！拔覀內钥春孟募驹蛢r格和價差，” Energy Aspects的分析師對路透社記者如是表示。

????近幾周，隨著歐洲封鎖，現貨市場出現跡象表明，現貨石油需求并不像石油期貨價格所暗示的那樣強勁，需求有所減弱。

????李峻 編譯自 油價網

????原文如下：

????Analysts See Oil Markets Balancing Out In H2 2021

????Despite recent signs of weakening oil demand as Europe grapples with a new wave of COVID cases, the crude oil futures market structure still points to demand beginning to outpace supply in the second half of 2021, analysts tell Reuters.

????The front-month spread of the Brent Crude futures prices flipped to contango in March, pointing to weaker demand and an oil oversupply in the immediate term.

????Last week, the nearest Brent Crude contract for May was trading at a discount to the next-month contract, the June contract, for the first time since January this year. The contango—the structure in which the front-month price is lower than prices in future months—points to an oversupply on the market. only the nearest contract was in contango, but the weakness in the backwardation in recent days has exacerbated concerns over near-term oil demand.

????Early on Wednesday, the May contract continued to trade in a $0.15 a barrel contango versus the June contract.

????However, the remaining contracts further out on the futures curve remain in backwardation, the state of the market signaling tighter supplies with prompt prices higher than those further out in time. The six-month Brent spread, the difference between the May and November contracts, is still in a deep backwardation of over $2 a barrel, which, analysts say, continues to point to the oil market rebalancing in the second half of this year with demand starting to exceed supply.

????Analysts at Energy Aspects remain bullish on the prospects of oil demand recovery in the second half of the year, despite the recent build-up of inventories amid renewed lockdowns in major European economies.

????“We remain bullish (on) summer crude prices and spreads,” Energy Aspects told Reuters.

????Demand has been weaker in recent weeks, with lockdowns in Europe and signs emerging from the physical market that spot oil demand was not as strong as oil futures prices had suggested.

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