據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月12日?qǐng)?bào)道，隨著供應(yīng)逐漸緊縮和需求增長(zhǎng)，布倫特原油價(jià)格首次自5月初以來(lái)攀升至每桶80美元以上。盡管數(shù)據(jù)顯示上周美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存增加了近600萬(wàn)桶，交易商們?nèi)詫⒔裹c(diǎn)放在夏季駕車(chē)旺季中的國(guó)內(nèi)需求激增上。

最新的原油價(jià)格上漲是在沙特阿拉伯連續(xù)第二個(gè)月將其自愿的每日100萬(wàn)桶原油減產(chǎn)延長(zhǎng)后出現(xiàn)的，這一次延長(zhǎng)將持續(xù)至8月。減產(chǎn)將使該國(guó)的產(chǎn)量降至每天約900萬(wàn)桶，為數(shù)年來(lái)的最低水平。為了提振疲軟的油價(jià)，沙特阿拉伯一直在犧牲銷(xiāo)售量，但迄今為止幾乎沒(méi)有得到回報(bào)，因?yàn)榘绹?guó)在內(nèi)的非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)提高了供應(yīng)量。

EIA報(bào)告稱(chēng)，美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量今年有望創(chuàng)下歷史最高水平，到4月份底同比增長(zhǎng)9%。EIA預(yù)測(cè)，今年美國(guó)總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1261萬(wàn)桶/日，超過(guò)2019年創(chuàng)下的1232萬(wàn)桶/日的最高水平，并輕松超過(guò)2022年的1189萬(wàn)桶/日。盡管歐佩克+宣布今年比2022年削減約6%的產(chǎn)量，雷斯塔能源估計(jì)，非歐佩克國(guó)家的產(chǎn)量彌補(bǔ)了這些削減的三分之二，這讓歐佩克推高油價(jià)的努力受挫。

與此同時(shí)，迪拜原油的交易活躍推高了其相對(duì)WTI原油的溢價(jià)，達(dá)到自3月下旬以來(lái)的最高水平，這可能使美國(guó)原油在亞洲市場(chǎng)上更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。在波斯灣產(chǎn)油國(guó)如沙特阿拉伯提高價(jià)格和運(yùn)費(fèi)上漲之后，越來(lái)越多的交易商轉(zhuǎn)向迪拜原油。

彭博社報(bào)道稱(chēng)，新加坡迪拜交易中心的迪拜原油期貨與美國(guó)WTI原油之間的價(jià)差達(dá)到每桶3.65美元。部分交易的增加（即將小批次期貨交易積累并轉(zhuǎn)化為實(shí)際貨物）也提振了迪拜原油價(jià)格。亞洲對(duì)美國(guó)原油的出口一直在增加，買(mǎi)家們?cè)跀?shù)月的購(gòu)買(mǎi)廉價(jià)原油后又開(kāi)始回購(gòu)美國(guó)原油。

迪拜原油被認(rèn)為是其他地區(qū)原油的代表。

胡耀東 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Brent Oil Price Rises Above $80 Per Barrel As Supply Tightens

Brent crude has climbed above $80 a barrel for the first time since early May, a sign that supply is gradually tightening and demand growing. The oil prices gains came despite data showing U.S. crude inventories jumped by nearly 6 million barrels last week with traders focusing on surging domestic demand during the summer driving season.

The latest oil price rally comes after Saudi Arabia, for the second month running, extended its voluntary 1M bbl/day oil production cut for another month, this time till August. The reduction will take the country’s production to ~9M bbl/day, the lowest level in several years. The Kingdom has been single-handedly sacrificing sales volume in a bid to goose weak oil prices, but has so far reaped little reward, thanks to increased supply by non-OPEC producers including the United States.

The Energy Information Administration has reported that U.S. crude oil production is on track to set a record this year, up 9% Y/Y through April. EIA has forecast total U.S. output will hit 12.61M bbl/day in the current year, above the previous record of 12.32M bbl/day set in 2019 and easily beating last year's 11.89M bbl/day. Although OPEC and its allies have announced cuts amounting to ~6% of 2022's production, Rystad Energy estimates output in countries outside OPEC is making up for about two-thirds of those reductions, frustrating OPEC’s efforts to goose prices.

Meanwhile, heavy trading in Dubai oil has lifted its premium to WTI crude to its highest since late March, a development that could make U.S. crude even more competitive in Asia. More traders have turned to Dubai after Persian Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia hiked prices and shipping rates also climbed.

Bloomberg has reported that Dubai swaps were trading at a premium of $3.65 a barrel above U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures in Singapore, with the spread usually smaller than $3. Increased trading of partial—smaller lots that are accumulated and converted into physical cargoes—is also giving a boost to Dubai oil prices. Asian exports of U.S. crude have been climbing with buyers returning after months of scooping up cheap barrels.

Dubai oil is considered a proxy for other regional grades.