據(jù)MRCHUB網(wǎng)站7月3日莫斯科報(bào)道，據(jù)烴加工網(wǎng)信息顯示，周五油價(jià)上漲至每桶75美元以上，但由于擔(dān)心全球經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和燃料需求疲軟，油價(jià)將連續(xù)第四個(gè)季度下跌。

截至格林尼治標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時(shí)間13時(shí)10分，9月交付的基準(zhǔn)布倫特原油期貨上漲82美分，漲幅1.1%，至每桶75.33美元。周五到期的即月交易量較小的合約上漲52美分，至74.86美元。在到6月底的三個(gè)月里，該合約有望下降6%，這是連續(xù)第四個(gè)季度下降。

美國(guó)西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油（WTI）上漲86美分，漲幅1.2%，至70.72美元。該合約環(huán)比下跌6.5%，為連續(xù)第二個(gè)季度下跌。最近幾個(gè)月，主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的通脹壓力和利率上升給市場(chǎng)帶來了壓力。

但上周美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)增強(qiáng)和美國(guó)石油庫(kù)存大幅下降的跡象提供了支撐。沙特阿拉伯計(jì)劃在7月份進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)100萬桶/日，此外歐佩克+還計(jì)劃在2024年前限制供應(yīng)，這為油價(jià)提供了進(jìn)一步的支持。

匯豐銀行分析師在一份報(bào)告中表示，盡管歐佩克+/沙特阿拉伯宣布了兩輪新的減產(chǎn)，但原油價(jià)格基本上仍保持在每桶80美元以下，因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)受基本面影響較小，受宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)擔(dān)憂影響較大。

“我們認(rèn)為，在夏季的部分時(shí)間里，這種情況將繼續(xù)存在，盡管預(yù)計(jì)今年下半年將出現(xiàn)約230萬桶的嚴(yán)重缺口，這將有助于刺激價(jià)格上漲勢(shì)頭。”路透社對(duì)37名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和分析師進(jìn)行的調(diào)查顯示，隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)逆風(fēng)的持續(xù)，今年油價(jià)將難以上漲。作為未來供應(yīng)指標(biāo)的美國(guó)石油鉆機(jī)數(shù)量數(shù)據(jù)將于周五晚些時(shí)候公布。

郝芬 譯自 MRCHUB

原文如下：

Oil heads for fourth straight quarterly decline

Oil prices rose above USD75 a barrel on Friday but were on course for a fourth consecutive quarter of losses amid concerns over sluggish global economic activity and fuel demand, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Benchmark Brent crude futures for September delivery were up 82 cents, or 1.1%, at USD75.33 a barrel by 1310 GMT. The less-traded front-month contract, which expires on Friday, was up 52 cents at USD74.86. The contract was on track for a 6% decline in the three months to the end of June, marking a fourth straight quarterly decline.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 86 cents or 1.2% to USD70.72. The contract is down 6.5% on a quarterly basis, its second consecutive quarterly drop. Inflationary pressure and rising interest rates in key economies  have weighed on markets in recent months.

But signs of strengthening U.S. economic activity and sharp declines in U.S. oil inventories last week offered support. Saudi Arabia's plans to cut output by a further 1 million barrels per day in July in addition to a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 offers further support.

"Despite the announcements of two fresh rounds of cuts from OPEC+/Saudi Arabia, crude prices have largely remained below $80 a barrel as the market has been driven less by fundamentals and more by macroeconomic concerns," HSBC analysts said in a note.

"We think this will continue to be the case for part of the summer, although the deep deficit of around 2.3 million barrels forecast for 2H23 should help to spur some upwards price momentum." A Reuters survey of 37 economists and analysts showed oil prices will struggle for traction this year as global economic headwinds linger. U.S. oil rig count data, an indicator of future supply, will be released later on Friday.