據(jù)今日石油網(wǎng)站2023年6月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署(IEA)的最新預(yù)測(cè)，到2028年前，拉丁美洲的原油產(chǎn)量將激增25%。圭亞那和巴西是引領(lǐng)這一產(chǎn)量激增的兩個(gè)國(guó)家。

IEA在其6月份對(duì)2028年的預(yù)測(cè)中指出：“歐佩克+聯(lián)盟以外的產(chǎn)油國(guó)將主導(dǎo)全球供應(yīng)能力中期增長(zhǎng)的計(jì)劃，預(yù)計(jì)到2028年前，美國(guó)、巴西和圭亞那的原油日產(chǎn)量將增加510萬(wàn)桶。”

根據(jù)歐佩克1月份的月度石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告，圭亞那的原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將每天大幅增加約9萬(wàn)桶。這一產(chǎn)量激增將推動(dòng)圭亞那2023年的原油產(chǎn)量比埃克森美孚公司運(yùn)營(yíng)項(xiàng)目2022年生產(chǎn)的1.01億桶多3200萬(wàn)桶。

歐佩克已將圭亞那確定為在推動(dòng)供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)方面發(fā)揮重要作用的關(guān)鍵非歐佩克生產(chǎn)國(guó)之一。這份名單上的其他國(guó)家包括美國(guó)、挪威、巴西、加拿大、哈薩克斯坦、墨西哥等。這七個(gè)國(guó)家預(yù)計(jì)將為全球原油產(chǎn)量日增大約154萬(wàn)桶。

未來(lái)幾年圭亞那近海預(yù)計(jì)將有幾個(gè)新開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目，這將進(jìn)一步提高原油產(chǎn)量。一個(gè)名為帕亞拉的新項(xiàng)目也有望在今年年內(nèi)獲得第一批原油。

圭亞那麗莎第一階段和第二階段開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目在今年開(kāi)始原油生產(chǎn)，原油日產(chǎn)量分別為14萬(wàn)桶和22萬(wàn)桶。埃克森美孚公司計(jì)劃將第二階段開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目的原油日產(chǎn)能優(yōu)化至25萬(wàn)桶。

在巴西，巴西國(guó)家石油公司表示，其今年第一季度的平均石油、天然氣液體和天然氣日產(chǎn)量達(dá)到了268萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量。這比上一季度增長(zhǎng)了1.1%，主要是由于Itapu油田P-71船的產(chǎn)量增加、坎波斯盆地8口新井的投產(chǎn)以及平臺(tái)生產(chǎn)效率的提高。隨著巴西國(guó)家石油公司在其鹽下油田增加18艘生產(chǎn)船的計(jì)劃的實(shí)施，預(yù)計(jì)這一原油產(chǎn)量數(shù)字將會(huì)進(jìn)一步增加。

根據(jù)IEA《2023年石油中期市場(chǎng)報(bào)告》，從2022年到2028年，全球原油日需求量預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)6%達(dá)到1.057億桶。這一增長(zhǎng)將受到石化和航空油料行業(yè)強(qiáng)勁需求的推動(dòng)。然而，盡管總體上有所增長(zhǎng)，但全球原油日需求預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)將從今年的240萬(wàn)桶大幅下降至2028年的40萬(wàn)桶，這表明全球原油需求峰值即將到來(lái)。

李峻 譯自 今日石油 網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Latin America’s oil and gas production set for 25% surge by 2028

New projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA) see Latin America’s oil production increasing by 25% by 2028. Guyana and Brazil are among those leading this growth. 

“Oil-producing countries outside the OPEC+ alliance dominate plans for increasing global supply capacity in the medium term, with an expected rise of 5.1 million barrels per day by 2028 led by the United States, Brazil and Guyana,” the IEA outlined in its June Forecast to 2028. 

According to the January monthly oil market report from OPEC, Guyana is expected to significantly increase its crude oil production by approximately 90,000 barrels per day (bpd). This surge in output would propel Guyana’s 2023 production to 32 million barrels more than the 101 million barrels produced in 2022 by ExxonMobil-operated projects.

OPEC has identified Guyana as one of the key non-OPEC producers that will play a vital role in driving supply growth. The other countries on this list include the United States, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Mexico etc. Collectively, these seven nations are projected to add around 1.54 million bpd to global oil production.

Several developments are expected offshore Guyana in coming years which will further boost crude oil production. A new project called Payara is also expected to achieve first oil this year. 

The Liza Phases 1 and 2 developments started the year with production at 140,000 bpd and 220,000 bpd respectively. Exxon plans to optimise Phase 2 to about 250,000 bpd.

Over in Brazil, Petrobras said that its average oil, natural gas liquids (NGL), and natural gas production reached 2.68 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboed) in the first quarter of 2023. This represents a 1.1% increase from the previous quarter, mainly due to production ramp-up of the P-71 vessel in Itapu field and the start-up of eight new wells in Campos Basin and higher production efficiencies in the platforms. And this is only expected to increase as Petrobras executes its plan to add 18 production vessels in its pre-salt fields. 

According to the IEA’s Oil 2023 medium-term market report, global oil demand is projected to increase by 6% from 2022 to 2028, reaching 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d). This growth will be driven by strong demand from the petrochemical and aviation sectors. However, despite this overall increase, annual demand growth is anticipated to decline significantly from 2.4 mb/d this year to only 0.4 mb/d in 2028, indicating that a peak in demand is on the horizon.