據(jù)美國鉆機地帶網(wǎng)站2023年6月9日報道，麥格理集團全球石油和天然氣市場分析師維卡斯·德維維迪和沃爾特·錢塞勒日前在發(fā)給鉆機地帶網(wǎng)站的一份新報告中宣布，在6月4日舉行的歐佩克+會議之后，他們對石油市場仍然“短期看漲，但結(jié)構(gòu)性看跌”。

分析師們在報告中表示：“我們?nèi)匀徽J為，煉油廠原油日加工量的大幅增加（350萬至400萬桶）、季節(jié)性之外機械工程電力消耗以及歐佩克+減產(chǎn)將在今年第三季度收緊原油市場平衡?！?/p>

分析師們補充說：“我們預(yù)計在今年第四季度和2024年將出現(xiàn)市場調(diào)整，原因是美國和北海的產(chǎn)量增長緩慢，歐佩克+不遵守減產(chǎn)協(xié)議，以及經(jīng)濟衰退影響導(dǎo)致的需求放緩?！?/p>

“在我們看來，石油市場面臨的結(jié)構(gòu)性挑戰(zhàn)是石油產(chǎn)量增長放緩，我們認為這一特征將持續(xù)數(shù)年”。

麥格理集團分析師們在報告中指出，在美國，煉油商需要重質(zhì)、含硫的原油“來平衡原油供應(yīng)”，因為美國國內(nèi)供應(yīng)的大部分是輕質(zhì)和低硫原油。

“因此，美國依賴從中東、墨西哥和南美進口重質(zhì)、含硫原油，以最大限度提高煉油廠的利用率?！?/p>

“沙特阿拉伯7月份自愿削減100萬桶原油日產(chǎn)量，這一減產(chǎn)協(xié)議有可能進一步壓縮原油折扣并壓縮煉油廠利潤率?！?/p>

分析師們還在報告中強調(diào)，與衰退壓力對需求的影響相關(guān)的宏觀擔憂，可能會限制歐佩克+干預(yù)支撐價格的能力。

分析師們在報告中表示：“需求是平衡中最不確定的關(guān)鍵部分，市場關(guān)注的是亞洲大國需求的增長?！?/p>

李峻 編譯自 鉆機地帶 網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Macquarie Group Reveals Oil Market Outlook

In a new report sent to Rigzone, Macquarie strategists Vikas Dwivedi and Walt Chancellor announced that they remain “short-term bullish but structurally bearish” on the oil market after last weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.

“We continue to believe the large, 3.5 to 4.0 million barrel per day increase in refinery runs, extra-seasonal ME power burn, and OPEC+ cuts will tighten direct crude balances through 3Q23,” the analysts stated in the report.

“From there, we expect a correction in 4Q23 and 2024 due to sweet production growth from the U.S. and N. Sea, OPEC+ non-compliance, and slowing demand due to recessionary effects,” they added.

“In our view, the structural challenge for the oil market is the ease of oil production growth, a feature we believe will persist for several years,” the analysts continued.

In the report, the Macquarie strategists outlined that, in the U.S., refiners need heavier, sour barrels “to balance the crude slate” as much of the domestic supply is light and sweet.

“Therefore, the U.S. relies on heavy, sour crude imports from the Middle East, Mexico, and South America to maximize the utilization of the refineries,” the analysts said.

“The extendable and reviewable one million barrel per day voluntary cut by Saudi for July has the potential to shrink … sour discounts and compress … refinery margins further,” they added.

The strategists also highlighted in the report that macro concerns associated with the impact of recessionary pressures on demand are potentially limiting the ability for OPEC+ intervention to support price.

“Demand is a key part of the balance that has the most uncertainty, with the market focusing on the demand growth of the biggest country in Asia,” the analysts said in the report.

“Currently, the IEA is attributing around 60 percent of 2023 global demand growth to the biggest country in Asia; in contrast we estimate it will contribute [around] 35 percent,” they added.