據(jù)生物柴油網(wǎng)6月7日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)（IATA）6月6日宣布，預(yù)計(jì)到2028年，可再生燃料的總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到至少182億加侖。可持續(xù)航空燃料（SAF）將依托新增的生物精煉廠和現(xiàn)有設(shè)施的擴(kuò)建，在這一不斷增長(zhǎng)的產(chǎn)量中占一部分。更為重要的是，預(yù)計(jì)產(chǎn)量會(huì)覆蓋北美、歐洲和亞太地區(qū)。

國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)總干事Willie Walsh表示：“預(yù)期的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)非常令人鼓舞。”“基于這一點(diǎn)，我們需要各國(guó)政府采取行動(dòng)，確保SAF獲得公平的生產(chǎn)份額。這首先意味著，要采取生產(chǎn)激勵(lì)措施來(lái)支持航空業(yè)的能源轉(zhuǎn)型。這就需要政府繼續(xù)批準(zhǔn)更多種類的SAF生產(chǎn)方法和原料。隨著這兩項(xiàng)措施的成功實(shí)施，我們可以相信，預(yù)計(jì)2028年生產(chǎn)水平將與我們最近所發(fā)布的2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零碳排放路線圖保持一致。這一點(diǎn)至關(guān)重要，因?yàn)槲覀兤诩絊AF在2050年能夠占碳減排約62%的份額。”

支持這種樂(lè)觀前景的趨勢(shì)苗頭已經(jīng)顯而易見(jiàn)。2022年，SAF產(chǎn)量增加了兩倍，達(dá)到約7925萬(wàn)加侖，潛在SAF生產(chǎn)商的項(xiàng)目公告正在迅速增長(zhǎng)。

國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)統(tǒng)計(jì)了在30個(gè)國(guó)家85多家生產(chǎn)商已宣布的130多個(gè)相關(guān)可再生燃料項(xiàng)目。這些項(xiàng)目中的每一個(gè)都公布了在其擴(kuò)大可再生燃料產(chǎn)品范圍時(shí)包括SAF的意圖或承諾。

通常情況下，項(xiàng)目宣布和商業(yè)化日期之間有3到5年的滯后期。

這意味著，在2030年之前可再生燃料產(chǎn)能仍可能繼續(xù)增加。

國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)表示，如果可再生燃料產(chǎn)量按估計(jì)到2028年達(dá)到182億加侖，到2030年將達(dá)到264億加侖。哪怕只有30%產(chǎn)品是SAF，到2030年，SAF產(chǎn)量將接近80億加侖。

Walsh說(shuō)：“從這些新的和擴(kuò)大的設(shè)施中保障必要的SAF百分比供給是不穩(wěn)定的。”“但隨著世界各國(guó)政府在國(guó)際民航組織上就到2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放的長(zhǎng)期目標(biāo)達(dá)成一致，他們現(xiàn)在共同承擔(dān)航空脫碳的責(zé)任。這意味著要建立一個(gè)政策框架，確保航空業(yè)在SAF可再生能源生產(chǎn)中獲得必要的份額。”

根據(jù)國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)的說(shuō)法，在目前的可持續(xù)性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)范圍內(nèi)，要推進(jìn)生產(chǎn)方式多樣化的理由顯而易見(jiàn)，因?yàn)橐郧癝AF生產(chǎn)途徑較為單一。目前，預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)五年內(nèi)，85%的SAF產(chǎn)量將僅來(lái)自九種認(rèn)證途徑中加氫處理的酯和脂肪酸（HEFA）這一方案，HEFA是一種依賴廢脂肪、油和油脂（FOG）原料等工業(yè)界公認(rèn)為第二代原料的生產(chǎn)技術(shù)。

國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)確定了實(shí)現(xiàn)SAF多樣化的三個(gè)主要途徑：

1.擴(kuò)大已經(jīng)認(rèn)證的SAF途徑，如自廢棄物合成（alcohol-to-jet）和費(fèi)托合成（Fischer-Tropsch）。

2.加快正在研發(fā)的新SAF生產(chǎn)途徑的研發(fā)。

3.擴(kuò)大原料和原料轉(zhuǎn)化技術(shù)。

令這些途徑加速到商業(yè)化水平將需要政府的政策引導(dǎo)。首先，SAF生產(chǎn)迫切需要統(tǒng)一的穩(wěn)定政策支持，以此減少包括生產(chǎn)商、原料供應(yīng)商和承購(gòu)商在內(nèi)的新市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入者的行政、后勤和地理阻礙。

更根本的挑戰(zhàn)是，找到開(kāi)發(fā)新技術(shù)和生產(chǎn)設(shè)施所需的資金。

國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)表示，各國(guó)政府應(yīng)該通過(guò)這些投資，著眼于更廣泛的可持續(xù)發(fā)展前景。

SAF可由剩余的林業(yè)和農(nóng)業(yè)殘留物、城市固體廢物、食物垃圾和濕垃圾（即第三代原料）生產(chǎn)。

從第三代原料中生產(chǎn)SAF可以為政府提供長(zhǎng)期的投資回報(bào)。這些回報(bào)有可能為環(huán)境清理提供資金支持，支持發(fā)展中的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，并同時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)能源轉(zhuǎn)型和能源安全。

國(guó)際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)最近的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，公眾對(duì)SAF的支持率很高。

大約85%的旅行者同意政府應(yīng)該激勵(lì)航空公司使用SAF。

Walsh說(shuō)：“公眾見(jiàn)證了政府在向綠色能源發(fā)電過(guò)渡過(guò)程中所扮演的角色。他們現(xiàn)在期望在向SAF轉(zhuǎn)型中，政府也能做到這一點(diǎn)。七國(guó)集團(tuán)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人剛剛重申他們理解‘SAF對(duì)可持續(xù)航空至關(guān)重要’。現(xiàn)在他們必須采用有效的政策來(lái)兌現(xiàn)他們?cè)?jīng)的承諾。有許多久經(jīng)考驗(yàn)的有效工具可以促進(jìn)SAF的生產(chǎn)，包括稅收抵免、補(bǔ)貼，甚至對(duì)新興技術(shù)和解決方案的直接投資等。航空公司希望購(gòu)買(mǎi)SAF，市場(chǎng)需求已經(jīng)等待多時(shí)。任何有意義激勵(lì)SAF生產(chǎn)的舉措，都將是前進(jìn)進(jìn)程中的一大步。”

林圣澤 編譯自 生物柴油網(wǎng)

原文如下：

IATA: SAF production set for growth but needs policy support to diversify sources

The International Air Transport Association announced June 6 its expectation for overall renewable fuel production to reach an estimated capacity of at least 18.2 billion gallons by 2028. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will comprise a portion of this growing output through new biorefineries and the expansion of existing facilities. importantly, the expected production has a wide geographic footprint covering North America, Europe and Asia Pacific.  

“The expected production increase is extremely encouraging,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. “Seeing this, we need governments to act to ensure that SAF gets its fair production share. That means, in the first instance, production incentives to support aviation’s energy transition. And we need continued approval for more diversification of methods and feedstocks available for SAF production. With these two measures successfully in place, we can be confident that the expected 2028 production levels will be realistically aligned with our recently published roadmaps to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. That is important as we are counting on SAF to provide about 62 percent of the carbon mitigation needed in 2050.”

Trends supporting this optimistic outlook are already visible. In 2022, SAF production tripled to some 79.25 million gallons and project announcements for potential SAF producers are rapidly growing.

IATA counts over 130 relevant renewable fuel projects announced by more than 85 producers across 30 countries. Each of these projects has either announced the intent or commitment to produce SAF within their wider product slate of renewable fuels.

Typically, there is a three- to five-year lag between a project announcement and its commercialization date.

This implies that further renewable fuel capacity out until 2030 could still be announced over the following years.

IATA stated that if renewable fuel production reaches 18.2 billion gallons by 2028 as estimated, the trajectory to 26.4 billion gallons by 2030 would be on track. If just 30 percent of that produced SAF, the industry could achieve nearly 8 billion gallons of SAF production by 2030.  

“Achieving the necessary SAF-percentage output from these new and expanding facilities is not a given,” Walsh said. “But with governments the world over agreeing at ICAO to a long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) of net zero by 2050, they now share accountability for aviation’s decarbonization. That means establishing a policy framework to ensure that aviation gets the needed share of renewable energy production in SAF.”

The case for diversification, within current sustainability criteria, is clear, according to IATA. At present, it is expected that 85 percent of future SAF volume over the next five years will be derived from just one of nine certified pathways, being hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA), which is dependent on limited availability of feedstock such as waste fat, oil and grease (FOG) feedstocks recognized by industry as second-generation feedstock.

IATA identifies three main avenues to achieve SAF diversification:

Scale already certified SAF pathways such as alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) and Fischer-Tropsch

Accelerated R&D for SAF production pathways that are currently in development

Scale up of feedstock and feedstock-conversion technology

Accelerating these avenues to commercialized levels will require policy leadership from governments. To start, there is an impending need for the harmonization of core SAF policies as a means of reducing administrative, logistical and geographic barriers to entry for new market entrants, including producers, feedstock providers and offtakers.  

More fundamentally, the challenge is finding the capital needed to fund the development of new technology and production facilities.

Governments must look at the broader sustainability picture with these investments, according to IATA.

SAF can be produced from surplus forestry and agricultural residues, municipal solid waste, food waste and wet wastes (third-generation feedstocks).

Producing SAF from these can create long-term return on investment opportunities for governments, with the potential of financing the clean-up of the environment, supporting developing economies and delivering a future-proofed intersection of energy transition and energy security.

A recent IATA survey revealed significant public support for SAF.

Some 85 percent of travelers agreed that governments should provide incentives for airlines to use SAF.

“People have experienced governments’ role in the transition to green energy for electricity,” Walsh said. “They now expect it for SAF. The G7 leaders are among the latest to reiterate their understanding that SAF is critical for sustainable aviation. Now they must support their declarations with effective policies. To promote SAF production, there are many tried and tested tools including tax credits, grants or even direct investments in emerging technologies and solutions. The market is there. Airlines want to purchase SAF. Anything to meaningfully incentivize SAF production will be a step forward.”