據(jù)天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)5月19日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于需求疲軟和庫(kù)存高企，亞洲現(xiàn)貨液化天然氣(LNG)價(jià)格跌至兩年來(lái)的最低水平，而歐洲液化天然氣價(jià)格也跌破10美元，原因是庫(kù)存增加走勢(shì)穩(wěn)定，當(dāng)前天然氣額外供應(yīng)需求有限。

據(jù)業(yè)內(nèi)消息人士估計(jì)，7月份交付東北亞的液化天然氣均價(jià)較前一周下降6.6%，至9.8美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，為2021年5月以來(lái)的最低水平。

Trident液化天然氣公司全球貿(mào)易主管Toby Copson表示，由于總體需求仍然不足，價(jià)格繼續(xù)徘徊在10美元以下。并補(bǔ)充道，“遠(yuǎn)期曲線顯示出良好的期貨溢價(jià)(期貨價(jià)格高于現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格)，因此我們預(yù)計(jì)隨著天氣變得更加極端，需求將會(huì)回升；8月份的預(yù)訂量應(yīng)該是我們看到大型公司購(gòu)買活動(dòng)增加的時(shí)候”。

研究咨詢公司Energy Aspects的液化天然氣市場(chǎng)分析師Leo Kabouche表示，南亞買家繼續(xù)主導(dǎo)現(xiàn)貨招標(biāo)活動(dòng)，泰國(guó)的熱浪正在給水力發(fā)電帶來(lái)壓力，可能會(huì)促使需求增加。

大宗商品定價(jià)機(jī)構(gòu)阿格斯液化天然氣定價(jià)主管塞繆爾?古德（Samuel Good）表示，從夏末到初冬，東北亞的LNG價(jià)格一直處于溢價(jià)狀態(tài)，這表明今年晚些時(shí)候可能存在向東北亞買家出售美國(guó)和西非LNG的價(jià)格激勵(lì)因素，不過(guò)問(wèn)題是東北亞的需求是否足以吸收大西洋的大量供應(yīng)。

Good補(bǔ)充道，盡管美國(guó)、阿曼和卡塔爾的LNG終端計(jì)劃進(jìn)行維護(hù)，以及挪威Hammerfest持續(xù)的計(jì)劃外停工，但大西洋盆地的貨物供應(yīng)仍然充足，并將保持強(qiáng)勁。

在歐洲，PZ-energy Research & Strategy首席能源經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Hans Van Cleef表示，由于天然氣需求下降，歐洲的高庫(kù)存已達(dá)到65%，短期內(nèi)供應(yīng)不會(huì)成為問(wèn)題，因此向歐洲出售非合同液化天然氣的經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)力正在減弱。并補(bǔ)充道，然而如果在幾個(gè)月的收縮后，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)反彈，或者由于極端炎熱的夏季或寒冷的冬季，或者如果世界上的其他大宗消費(fèi)方開始購(gòu)買液化天然氣，這將導(dǎo)致歐洲液化天然氣供應(yīng)量降低，那么從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，可能會(huì)形成風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

據(jù)《大西洋LNG》執(zhí)行主編Allen Reed稱，5月18日，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾全球商品洞察評(píng)估了7月份在目的港船上交貨(DES)基礎(chǔ)上交付的西北歐液化天然氣(NWM)每日價(jià)格基準(zhǔn)為8.427美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，較荷蘭天然氣TTF樞紐7月份的天然氣價(jià)格低1.220美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位。

5月18日，大宗商品定價(jià)機(jī)構(gòu)評(píng)估NWE DES的價(jià)格為8.25美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，較TTF天然氣價(jià)格低1.42美元。

Spark Commodities分析師Edward Armitage表示，本周液化天然氣現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)費(fèi)進(jìn)一步下跌，創(chuàng)下2022年夏季以來(lái)的新低，周五大西洋現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)費(fèi)降至36000美元/天，太平洋現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)費(fèi)降至39750美元/天。

郝芬 譯自 天然氣加工新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Asian spot LNG prices slip to 2-year low on tepid demand

Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices slipped to their lowest level in two years on weak demand and high inventories, while European LNG prices also fell below the $10 mark amid healthy stock build and limited need for additional supply.

The average LNG price for July delivery into northeast Asia was down 6.6% from the previous week at $9.8 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the lowest since May 2021, industry sources estimated.

"Prices continue to linger sub $10 as general demand remains lacking," said Toby Copson, global head of trading at Trident LNG.

"The forwards curve shows healthy contango (where the futures price is higher than the spot price), so we expect demand should pick up as the weather gets more extreme. August bookings should be when we see more activity from the bigger players," he added.

Leo Kabouche, LNG market analyst at research consultancy Energy Aspects, said South Asian buyers continued to dominate spot tenders, with a heatwave in Thailand that is pressuring the country’s hydropower output likely to generate incremental demand.

Samuel Good, head of LNG pricing at commodity pricing agency Argus said that the contango present in northeast Asian through late summer and early winter suggests there could be a price incentive to market U.S. and West African cargoes to northeast Asian buyers later this year, though the question is whether northeast Asian demand could be sufficient to absorb a significant swathe of Atlantic supply.

Good added that cargo availability remains ample and is set to remain strong in the Atlantic basin despite planned maintenance in the United States, Oman and Qatar, and an ongoing unplanned downtime at Norway’s Hammerfest.

In Europe, Hans Van Cleef, chief energy economist at PZ - Energy Research & Strategy said that the economic driver to sell the non-contracted LNG to Europe is diminishing due to lower gas demand and Europe's high inventories that are 65% full which will not be a problem in the near term.

"However, it could form a risk for the longer term if demand starts to pick up due to economic rebound after a few months of contraction, or due to extremely hot summer or cold winter, or if other consumers in the world start to buy this LNG which would lower the availability of LNG towards Europe in times when it is necessary," he added.

S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily north-west Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in July on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $8.427/mmBtu on May 18, a $1.220/mmBtu discount to the July gas price at the Dutch gas TTF hub, according to Allen Reed, managing editor of Atlantic LNG.

Argus assessed the NWE DES price at $8.25/mmBtu on May 18, a $1.42 discount to TTF gas price.

Spot LNG freight rates weakened further this week, touching new lows since summer 2022, with the Atlantic spot rates falling to $36,000/day on Friday, and the Pacific rates falling to $39,750/day, according to Edward Armitage, an analyst at Spark Commodities.