據(jù)鉆井地帶網(wǎng)站報(bào)道，今年石油需求將達(dá)到何種水平，這取決于你問誰。

例如，國(guó)際能源信息署（IEA）在最新發(fā)布的《石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告》（OMR）中透露，預(yù)計(jì)全球石油需求將同比增長(zhǎng)220萬桶/日，平均達(dá)到每日1.02億桶。IEA在4月份的OMR中提到，全球石油需求每日增長(zhǎng)200萬桶，達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的1.019億桶。

“本次報(bào)告將2023年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)至每日220萬桶，其中亞洲的復(fù)蘇甚至比之前預(yù)期的更為強(qiáng)勁。”國(guó)際能源信息署在其5月份的OMR中指出。

“作為全球第二大石油消費(fèi)國(guó)，亞洲大國(guó)將占2023年全球增長(zhǎng)的近60%。亞洲大國(guó)、印度和中東地區(qū)在年初的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄需求超過了全球低迷的工業(yè)活動(dòng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）國(guó)家的石油消費(fèi)。”國(guó)際能源署信息補(bǔ)充道。

“后者僅占今年增長(zhǎng)的15%，受消費(fèi)支出和個(gè)人流動(dòng)性的支撐。”國(guó)際能源署繼續(xù)表示。

根據(jù)美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）最新發(fā)布的短期能源展望（STEO），全球石油消費(fèi)量將在2023年平均達(dá)到每日1.0099億桶。按季度劃分，EIA的5月份STEO預(yù)計(jì)今年第二季度的消費(fèi)量為1.0082億桶，第三季度為1.0158億桶，第四季度為1.0167億桶。

EIA在4月份發(fā)布的上一份STEO預(yù)測(cè)，2023年全球總需求將達(dá)到1.0087億桶/日。

“盡管液體燃料需求增長(zhǎng)在2024年底面臨下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但我們預(yù)計(jì)季節(jié)性的石油消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)和歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量下降將在未來幾個(gè)月對(duì)原油價(jià)格施加一定上行壓力。”美國(guó)能源信息署在其5月份的STEO中指出。

“根據(jù)我們的預(yù)測(cè)，全球液體燃料消費(fèi)將在2023年增加160萬桶/日，2024年增加170萬桶/日，而大部分預(yù)期的液體燃料需求增長(zhǎng)將出現(xiàn)在非OECD亞洲地區(qū)，以亞洲大國(guó)和印度為主導(dǎo)。”美國(guó)能源信息署補(bǔ)充道。

“我們預(yù)計(jì)這種需求增長(zhǎng)將在2023年第三季度至2024年第一季度將全球石油市場(chǎng)推向平衡，并將布倫特原油價(jià)格從當(dāng)前水平推回每桶75美元至80美元。”美國(guó)能源信息署繼續(xù)表示。

在上周發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告中，渣打銀行表示，今年全球石油需求將平均達(dá)到每日1.0094億桶。該報(bào)告強(qiáng)調(diào)，這一數(shù)字比上個(gè)月增加了15.6萬桶/日。

在渣打銀行的最新報(bào)告中，他們預(yù)測(cè)今年第二季度的需求量為1.0047億桶/日，第三季度為1.0192億桶/日，第四季度為1.0178億桶/日。

“目前能源經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所觀察到的數(shù)據(jù)與投機(jī)交易者所采取的行動(dòng)之間存在一種脫節(jié)。”渣打銀行分析師在報(bào)告中指出。

“我們認(rèn)為這種脫節(jié)是石油市場(chǎng)情緒越來越受宏觀因素主導(dǎo)的結(jié)果——我們發(fā)現(xiàn)大多數(shù)交易者在過去三個(gè)月對(duì)需求更加悲觀。”分析師補(bǔ)充道。

吳奇之 編譯自 鉆井地帶 網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

What Will World Oil Demand Be in 2023?

Where will oil demand land this year? It depends on who you ask.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, revealed in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), which was released this month, that it now projects world oil demand to rise by 2.2 million barrels per day year on year to average 102 million barrels per day. The IEA’s April OMR saw world oil demand climbing by two million barrels per day to “a record 101.9 million barrels per day”.

“Our forecast for world oil demand growth for 2023 has been revised up to 2.2 million barrels per day in this report, with Asian rebound even stronger than previously expected,” the IEA noted in its May OMR.

“The world’s second biggest oil user after the U.S. will account for nearly 60 percent of global growth in 2023. Record demand in the biggest country in Asia, India, and the Middle East at the start of the year more than offset lackluster industrial activity and oil use in the OECD,” the IEA added.

“The latter accounts for just 15 percent of growth this year, supported by consumer spending and personal mobility,” the IEA continued.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was also released this month, total world consumption will average 100.99 million barrels per day in 2023. Broken down quarterly, the EIA’s May STEO sees this consumption coming in at 100.82 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, 101.58 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.67 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in April, projected that total world demand would be 100.87 million barrels per day in 2023.

“Although demand growth for liquid fuels faces downside risks through the end of 2024, we expect the seasonal rise in oil consumption and a drop in OPEC crude oil production to put some upward pressure on crude oil prices in the coming months,” the EIA noted in its May STEO.

“Global liquid fuels consumption in our forecast increases by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2023 and by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024, and most expected liquid fuels demand growth is in non-OECD Asia, led by the biggest country in Asia and India,” the EIA added.

“We expect this demand growth will bring the global oil market into balance between the third quarter of 2023 and 1Q24 and push the Brent price from current levels back to between $75 per barrel and $80 per barrel,” the EIA continued.

In a report sent to Rigzone last week, Standard Chartered revealed that it sees global oil demand averaging 100.94 million barrels per day this year. The figure marks a 156,000 barrel per day increase from last month, the report highlighted.

In its latest report, Standard Chartered forecasts that demand will come in at 100.47 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, 101.92 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.78 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

“There appears to be a disconnect between what energy economists are seeing in the data and what speculative traders are acting on,” Standard Chartered analysts noted in the report.

“We think this disconnect is the result of the increasingly top-down and macro-led nature of oil-market sentiment - we find that most traders have become more pessimistic about demand over the past three months,” the analysts added.