據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶3月28日?qǐng)?bào)道，渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)分析師在上周晚些時(shí)候發(fā)給Rigzone的一份報(bào)告中透露，渣打的原油基金經(jīng)理定位指數(shù)（SC Oil Positioning Index）出現(xiàn)了六年來(lái)最大的單周跌幅。

根據(jù)報(bào)告，西得克薩斯中質(zhì)油(WTI) NYMEX下跌36.0點(diǎn)至-67.6點(diǎn)，WTI ICE下跌17.7點(diǎn)至-96.5點(diǎn)，布倫特NYMEX下跌17.3點(diǎn)至2.4點(diǎn)，布倫特ICE下跌28.9點(diǎn)至-27.6點(diǎn)。報(bào)告強(qiáng)調(diào)，渣打原油綜合倉(cāng)位指數(shù)下跌41.6點(diǎn)，至-67.0。

渣打銀行分析師還透露，他們的汽油倉(cāng)位指數(shù)20個(gè)月來(lái)首次轉(zhuǎn)為負(fù)值，下降36.4至-6.6，他們?cè)趫?bào)告中指出，他們認(rèn)為目前在石油上的倉(cāng)位已經(jīng)足夠做空，可以看漲油價(jià)。

分析師在報(bào)告中表示：“γ效應(yīng)在當(dāng)前價(jià)格上的逆轉(zhuǎn)，應(yīng)該也會(huì)支持短期走高。”

渣打銀行在其最新報(bào)告中指出，美國(guó)商品期貨交易委員會(huì)(CFTC)公布了最后一批積壓的倉(cāng)位數(shù)據(jù)，這些數(shù)據(jù)是由于第三方數(shù)據(jù)提供商遭受網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊而產(chǎn)生的。

在這份結(jié)合了CFTC數(shù)據(jù)和洲際交易所(Intercontinental Exchange)同等數(shù)據(jù)的報(bào)告中，分析師們指出，“原油和汽油出現(xiàn)大量拋售，同時(shí)資金迅速轉(zhuǎn)向貴金屬”。

“基金經(jīng)理在截至3月14日的一周內(nèi)凈拋售了四份主要的布倫特和WTI合約，總計(jì)1.2810億桶。”分析師補(bǔ)充道。

“CFTC的下一份數(shù)據(jù)……將顯示截至3月21日(價(jià)格跌至低點(diǎn)后一天)的頭寸，并可能顯示進(jìn)一步的投機(jī)平倉(cāng)。”分析師們繼續(xù)表示。

分析師表示，根據(jù)渣打銀行的牛熊指數(shù)，美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署(EIA)最新數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)中性。

分析師表示：“盡管汽油和餾分油大幅減少，但原油庫(kù)存較五年平均水平增加了335萬(wàn)桶，需求仍然疲弱，原油產(chǎn)量上升。”

“在今年早些時(shí)候出現(xiàn)大量負(fù)面數(shù)據(jù)之后，任何積極的數(shù)據(jù)都可能改善市場(chǎng)人氣。現(xiàn)在EIA數(shù)據(jù)變得更加樂(lè)觀，所需要的只是每周原油余額中的幾個(gè)需求數(shù)據(jù)，以幫助減少超過(guò)五年平均水平的3365萬(wàn)桶原油盈余。”分析師補(bǔ)充道。

在3月21日發(fā)給Rigzone的另一份報(bào)告中，渣打銀行分析師概述稱，他們認(rèn)為石油供需平衡“對(duì)價(jià)格的影響相對(duì)溫和”。

分析師在報(bào)告中表示：“這并沒(méi)有為近期油價(jià)跌至每桶70美元提供多少基本面支持，但也不支持今年油價(jià)持續(xù)飆升至每桶100美元以上。”

渣打銀行在21日的報(bào)告書中預(yù)測(cè)，今年WTI的平均價(jià)格為每桶88美元，2004年為每桶95美元，2005年為每桶106美元。報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)，布倫特原油2023年平均每桶91美元，2024年平均每桶98美元，2025年平均每桶109美元。

在上周發(fā)給Rigzone的一份聲明中，伍德麥肯茲指出，“無(wú)論是從基數(shù)還是從高位來(lái)看”，亞洲恢復(fù)正常流動(dòng)性預(yù)計(jì)將在2023年推動(dòng)全球石油需求強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇。

市場(chǎng)分析人士補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“這應(yīng)該會(huì)使布倫特原油價(jià)格從目前的水平上升到2023年的平均每桶89.40美元。”

伍德麥肯茲在聲明中表示，更樂(lè)觀的情況是，2023年建筑活動(dòng)增加將推動(dòng)亞洲石油需求進(jìn)一步上升，并強(qiáng)調(diào)這可能推動(dòng)年度油價(jià)每桶上漲3至5美元。

高盛(Goldman Sachs) 3月6日在其網(wǎng)站上發(fā)布的一份聲明中指出，根據(jù)高盛研究(Goldman Sachs Research)的一份報(bào)告，到今年年底，油價(jià)可能升至每桶107美元的高位，“這取決于歐佩克如何應(yīng)對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)狀況”。

本月晚些時(shí)候，彭博社(Bloomberg)報(bào)道稱，高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析師“現(xiàn)在認(rèn)為，布倫特原油價(jià)格在未來(lái)12個(gè)月將達(dá)到每桶94美元，2024年下半年將達(dá)到每桶97美元，此前為每桶100美元”。

壽琳玲 編譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

原文如下：

Largest Single Week Drop in 6 Years for SC Oil Positioning Index

Analysts at Standard Chartered revealed in a report sent to Rigzone late last week that their crude oil positioning index saw its largest single week decline in six years.

According to the report, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) NYMEX fell 36.0 points to -67.6, WTI ICE fell 17.7 points to -96.5, Brent NYMEX fell 17.3 to 2.4, and Brent ICE dropped 28.9 points to -27.6. The combined crude oil Standard Chartered positioning index fell 41.6 points to -67.0, the report highlighted.

The Standard Chartered analysts, who also revealed that their gasoline positioning index turned negative for the first time in 20 months, falling by 36.4 to -6.6, noted in the report that they think positioning in oil is now short enough to be price positive.

“The reversal of gamma effects at current prices should also support a short-term move higher,” the analysts stated in the report.

In its latest report, Standard Chartered noted that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had published the last of the backlog of positioning data that arose from a cyberattack on a third-party data provider.

In the report, which combined the CFTC data with equivalent Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data, the analysts noted that “there was heavy selling of crude oil and gasoline, combined with a rapid move by funds into precious metals”.

“Money manager net selling across the four main Brent and WTI contracts totaled 128.1 million barrels in the week to 14 March,” the analysts added.

“The next CFTC data … will show positions as of 21 March, a day after the price low, and is likely to show a further speculative unwind,” the analysts continued.

The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data was neutral, according to Standard Chartered’s bull-bear index, the analysts said.

“While there were strong draws in gasoline and distillates, crude oil inventories rose 3.35 million barrels against the five-year average, demand is still weak, and crude oil output rose,” the analysts stated.

“After the torrent of negative data earlier this year, any positive data is likely to improve sentiment. All that is now needed for the EIA data to become more bullish is a few more blue boxes in the week on week crude oil balance to help reduce the 33.65 million barrel surplus of crude above the five-year average,” the analysts added.

In a separate report sent to Rigzone on March 21, analysts at Standard Chartered outlined that they thought their oil supply-demand balance was “relatively benign in terms of its price implications”.

“It does not lend much fundamental support to the recent push down to $70 per barrel, but it also does not support any sustained surge this year above $100 per barrel,” the analysts stated in that report.

In its March 21 report, Standard Chartered projected that WTI would average $88 per barrel this year, $95 per barrel in 2004, and $106 per barrel in 2005. Brent was projected to average $91 per barrel in 2023, $98 per barrel in 2024, and $109 per barrel in 2025 in the report.

In a statement sent to Rigzone last week, Wood Mackenzie noted that Asian return to normal mobility is expected to drive a strong recovery in global oil demand in 2023 “from both a base and high case perspective”.

“This should see Brent crude prices rising from current levels to average $$89.40 per barrel for 2023,” Hittle added.

The more bullish high case scenario would see increased construction activity driving Asian oil demand even higher in 2023, Wood Mackenzie said in the statement, highlighting that this could push annual oil prices higher by $3-$5 per barrel.

In a statement posted on its website on March 6, Goldman Sachs noted that, according to a report from Goldman Sachs Research, oil prices could rise as high as $107 a barrel by the end of the year “depending on how OPEC responds to emerging market conditions”.

Later on in the month, Bloomberg reported that Goldman Sachs analysts “now see Brent reaching $94 a barrel for the 12 months ahead, and $97 a barrel in the second half of 2024, versus $100 a barrel previously”.