分析師們?cè)Ｍ?0月份二疊頁(yè)巖紀(jì)盆地的原油產(chǎn)量將創(chuàng)下歷史新高，美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）預(yù)測(cè)10月份二疊紀(jì)頁(yè)巖盆地原油產(chǎn)量將日增6.6萬(wàn)桶  

然而，由于二疊紀(jì)頁(yè)巖盆地在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量的減少，分析師們可能很快就不得不修改這些預(yù)測(cè)  

美國(guó)頁(yè)巖鉆井公司正在優(yōu)先考慮股東回報(bào)和償還債務(wù)，同時(shí)應(yīng)對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈問題和通貨膨脹  

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)9月14日?qǐng)?bào)道，目前對(duì)美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)可能需要大幅修正，因?yàn)樽罱B紀(jì)頁(yè)巖盆地在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量的下滑表明，由于供應(yīng)鏈的限制和兩位數(shù)的成本膨脹，10月份二疊紀(jì)盆地的原油產(chǎn)量可能會(huì)令人失望。

貝克休斯公司周五發(fā)布的最新統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，上周，由于美國(guó)在用鉆機(jī)總數(shù)減少1部，二疊紀(jì)頁(yè)巖盆地的在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量減少2部，至340部。  

目前二疊紀(jì)頁(yè)巖盆地的在用石油鉆機(jī)數(shù)量為316部，為4個(gè)月來(lái)的最低水平。彭博新聞社 Opinion專欄作家Javier Blas認(rèn)為，這表明美國(guó)最高產(chǎn)的頁(yè)巖盆地的原油產(chǎn)量正在經(jīng)歷“明顯的放緩”，而頁(yè)巖盆地一直推動(dòng)著美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)。 

在用石油鉆機(jī)數(shù)量從7月份的331部下降到現(xiàn)在的316部，這表明二疊紀(jì)地區(qū)的原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)，以及美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)需要重新調(diào)整。

由于頁(yè)巖鉆井公司優(yōu)先考慮股東回報(bào)和償還債務(wù)，即使油價(jià)在每桶90美元或100美元，他們也不會(huì)急于進(jìn)行鉆探作業(yè)。即使是那些計(jì)劃增加鉆井活動(dòng)的公司也面臨著供應(yīng)鏈延誤和高達(dá)20%的成本上漲。

與此同時(shí)，美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）在本周發(fā)布的最新鉆井生產(chǎn)力報(bào)告中稱，10月份二疊紀(jì)頁(yè)巖盆地原油產(chǎn)量將觸及紀(jì)錄高位，將比9月份日增6.6萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到541.3萬(wàn)桶。 

然而，并非所有人都如此樂觀：先鋒自然資源公司首席執(zhí)行官斯科特·謝菲爾德上周表示，美國(guó)今明兩年的原油產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)可能會(huì)令人失望。  

據(jù)路透社上周報(bào)道，謝菲爾德預(yù)測(cè)今年美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量將日增50萬(wàn)桶，但由于限制因素，2023年的原油產(chǎn)量增幅可能低于這一數(shù)字。 EIA預(yù)計(jì)2023年美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量將日增80萬(wàn)桶。 

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Analysts May Have Overhyped America’s Largest Oil Basin

·     Analysts had hoped that oil production at the Permian Basin would hit record highs in October, with the EIA forecasting a 66,000-bpd increase.

·     As the active rig count drops in the basin, however, analysts may soon have to revise those forecasts.

·     Shale drillers are prioritizing returns to shareholders and paying down debts while at the same time dealing with supply chain problems and inflation.

Current forecasts of U.S. crude oil production growth may have to be significantly revised as the recent slide in active drilling rigs in the top shale basin, the Permian, suggests that output may disappoint due to supply chain constraints and cost inflation in the double digits.

The rig count in the Permian Basin dropped by 2 to 340 last week, as the number of total active drilling rigs in the United States dropped by 1, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday.

The active oil rigs in the Permian now number 316 - the lowest in four months. This suggests that the most prolific U.S. shale basin, which continues to drive America’s oil production growth, is going through “a significant slowdown,” Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas argues.

The slowdown in activity, as evidenced by the drop in active oil rigs from 331 in July to 316 now, points to the fact that forecasts of Permian output, and by extension, U.S. crude oil production growth, need to be recalibrated lower.  

As shale drillers prioritize returns to shareholders and paying down debts, they are not rushing to drill even at $90 or $100 oil. Even those planning an increase in drilling activity face supply chain delays and up to 20% higher costs.

At the same time, the Energy Information Administration said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report this week that crude oil production in the Permian is set to hit a record high next month, adding 66,000 bpd from September to reach 5.413 million bpd in October.

Yet not everyone is so optimistic: Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield said last week that U.S. oil production growth would likely disappoint both this year and next.

Sheffield has forecast that U.S. oil production will add 500,000 bpd this year but in 2023 the production gains may be lower than this, due to constraints, Reuters reported last week. The EIA forecasts production growth of 800,000 bpd for 2023.