據油價網8月24日報道，美國全國平均油價在5月初達到每加侖5.02美元的峰值后，已連續70天下跌，周三跌至每加侖3.88美元，創下20年來第二長的連續跌勢。

但專家們現在警告稱，消費者不應該被誤導，產生一種錯誤的信心，認為跌勢會持續下去。CIBC Private Wealth高級能源交易員麗貝卡?巴賓（Rebecca Babin）在接受雅虎財經（Yahoo Finance Live）采訪時警告稱，有兩個因素可能給天然氣價格帶來上行壓力:儲量和制裁。

巴賓表示，即使汽油需求下降，供應也會隨之下降，但不會出現大幅回落。全國汽油價格可能會自此上漲。

巴賓指出，政府大規模釋放石油儲備的計劃將于11月結束，而歐洲將于12月實施制裁。她認為，這兩個因素都可能減少石油供應，推高價格，并波及汽油。更重要的是，這將與北美的取暖油季節相吻合，這意味著煉油商將更傾向于將原油制成取暖油，而不是汽油。

自本周開始以來，原油價格一直在削減稍早前的損失，此前沙特石油大臣表示，當前的熊市可能需要歐佩克+收緊產量，因為期貨價格沒有反映供需基本面。

這位負責人警告稱，期貨市場的極端波動性和缺乏流動性正在以不符合正常供需因素的方式影響價格，這可能會促使歐佩克+采取行動。

彭博評論專欄作家Javier Blas表示，油價100美元的可能性更大，稱之為價格下限，歐佩克+看跌期權的回歸，或者簡單地說，是一條底線。不管如何用文字描述這個底線，利雅得的干預表明傾向于將油價保持在100美元左右。

郝芬 譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Lagging Demand Won’t Keep Gas Prices From Soaring Again

After peaking in early-May at $5.02 per gallon, U.S. national average gas prices have declined for 70 straight days to trade at $3.88 per gallon on Wednesday, marking the second-longest losing streak in two decades.

But experts are now warning that consumers should not be lulled into a false sense of confidence thinking the cuts will last. In an interview with Yahoo Finance Live, Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, has warned that two factors could put upward pressure on gas prices: reserves and sanctions.

“Even if demand dips [for gasoline], supply will dip with it, and I don’t see a significant pullback. If anything, I think that gasoline prices on the national average will probably rise from here,” Babin has said.

Babin notes the giant SPR release of oil reserves by the Biden administration is set to end in November while Europe is due to implement sanctions  in December. She argues that both factors could cut oil supply, pushing prices higher and rippling through to gasoline. Compounding matters is the fact that this will coincide with the heating oil season in North America, meaning refiners will be more inclined to make crude into heating oil instead of gasoline.

Since the beginning of the week, crude oil prices have been paring back earlier losses after Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the current bear market may require OPEC+ to tighten production because futures prices do not reflect underlying fundamentals of supply and demand.

"Extreme volatility and lack of liquidity in the futures market are moving prices in ways that do not conform to normal supply and demand factors, which may spark OPEC+ to take action,’ the Saudi oil chief warned.

Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas says $100 oil just got a lot more likely following bin Salman’s comments: “Call it a price floor, the return of the OPEC+ put or, simply, a line in the sand. Whatever its name, Riyadh’s intervention indicates a preference to keep oil near $100.