據能源網圣保羅報道，巴西政府時下正在考慮在今年晚些時候增加混合在卡車燃料中的生物柴油的用量，以避免燃料短缺。

據直接知情人士透露，如果今年下半年柴油庫存保持在較低水平，這個拉美最大經濟體的生物柴油混合比例可能會從10%提高到15%。由于討論尚未公開，知情人士要求不具名采訪。其中一位知情人士說，此次在卡車燃料中增加生物柴油比例將在有限的時間內實施 。  

由于生物柴油比以石油為基礎的燃料更貴，因此使用更多的生物柴油實際上會提高燃料價格。 

減少進口  

據美國知名商品與股票經紀商StoneX集團石油分析師佩德羅·辛扎托估計，混合柴油的增加可能會使巴西每月柴油進口減少5船，而巴西通常每月進口20至30船的柴油。  

巴西行業組織Abiove說，生產商可以利用現有庫存和可出口的過剩石油為一種生物柴油混合燃料提供12%的石油。據一位知情人士透露，要達到15%的比例，巴西生產商需要再壓榨300萬噸大豆。今年巴西估計要壓榨4800萬噸大豆。 

由于擔心供應緊張，芝加哥豆油價格接近歷史最高水平。由于保護主義措施導致競爭對手棕櫚油的出口下降，以及葵花籽油的出口下降，大豆油的需求一直在增加。由于對豆制品的強勁需求有利于壓榨，巴西農業部下屬的國家商品供應公司Conab在6月8日下調了今年巴西的大豆出口預期。

巴西能源部新聞官員表示，目前還沒有就此事做出決定。巴西石油監管機構ANP在一份聲明中說，它正在監測情況，并提出必要的措施來保證柴油供應，但沒有提到具體措施。

根據6月3日發布的一份聲明，巴西主要的石油聯盟FUP警告稱，今年下半年，柴油價格可能從目前的大約每升7雷亞爾（每加侖7.77美元）升至每升10雷亞爾。FUP還警告說，農業收獲期間柴油需求的增加加劇了供應的短缺。巴西農民通常在每年的第三和第四季度使用更多的柴油。 

李峻 編譯自 能源網

原文如下：

Brazil Mulls Using More Biodiesel to Avoid Fuel Shortage

Brazil’s government is mulling an increase later this year in the amount of biodiesel blended into trucking fuel to avoid shortages. 

Latin America’s largest economy may boost the biodiesel blend to 15% from 10% if stockpiles of diesel remain at low levels during the second half of the year, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter, who asked to not be named because the discussion isn’t public. The increase would be in place for a limited time, one of the people said.

The higher blend would help maintain stockpiles at a time when there’s a higher risk that supply from the US is curbed due to hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Fewer imports

An increase in the blend could reduce diesel imports by five vessels per month out of the typical 20 to 30 ships, according to estimates by Pedro Shinzato, an oil analyst at StoneX. 

Industry group Abiove said producers can supply oil for a biodiesel blend of 12% using current stockpiles and exportable surplus. To reach 15% would require Brazilian producers to crush an additional 3 million tons of soybeans, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. That’s on top of the 48 million tons estimated for this year.

Soy-oil prices are trading near all-time-highs in Chicago on tight supply concerns. Demand for soybean oil has been increasing amid lower exports of rivals palm oil, due to protectionism measures, and sunflower oil because of the war. On Wednesday, Brazil’s national supply company Conab cut its estimate for bean exports this year as strong demand for soy products has favored crushing.

The Energy Ministry press officer said that there’s no decision on this matter at the moment. Brazil’s oil regulator, known as ANP, said in a statement that it is monitoring the situation and proposing necessary measures to guarantee the diesel supply, without mention which measures was proposed.

Brazil’s main oil union, known as FUP, warned that diesel prices may reach 10 reais per liter ($7.77 per gallon) during the second half of the year from the current level of about 7 reais, according to a statement published on June 3. The union had also warned that the increase in demand during the agricultural harvest added to the scarcity of supply. Farmers typically use more diesel during the third and fourth quarters of the year.