? 短期內(nèi)北海地區(qū)對(duì)油氣運(yùn)營(yíng)商來(lái)說(shuō)仍然是一個(gè)不錯(cuò)的市場(chǎng)  

? 伍德麥肯茲：英國(guó)北海油氣運(yùn)營(yíng)商今年將看到接近紀(jì)錄的現(xiàn)金保證金和利潤(rùn) 

? 在最近的兩次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間，油氣運(yùn)營(yíng)商大幅削減成本，而當(dāng)前強(qiáng)勁的商品價(jià)格將提高油氣運(yùn)營(yíng)商的現(xiàn)金流  

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2022年1月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，全球著名能源咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲表示，由于英國(guó)北海油氣運(yùn)營(yíng)商將在一個(gè)“機(jī)不可失”的監(jiān)管環(huán)境下在油氣價(jià)格高企之際尋求延長(zhǎng)油田的開(kāi)采壽命，他們今年將看到接近歷史最高水平的現(xiàn)金保證金和利潤(rùn)。  

盡管油田開(kāi)發(fā)審批和英國(guó)凈零目標(biāo)方面的長(zhǎng)期不確定性仍對(duì)石油天然氣行業(yè)構(gòu)成巨大威脅，但短期來(lái)看，北海對(duì)油氣運(yùn)營(yíng)商來(lái)說(shuō)仍然是一個(gè)不錯(cuò)的市場(chǎng)。 

伍德麥肯茲表示：“2022年的產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)和接近歷史最高水平的現(xiàn)金流將加強(qiáng)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，讓經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家感到高興。” 

根據(jù)天空新聞?lì)l道援引的伍德麥肯茲的分析，英國(guó)北海的油氣運(yùn)營(yíng)商預(yù)計(jì)在2021年獲得了170億美元的現(xiàn)金流，并將在2022年獲得180億美元的現(xiàn)金流。

伍德麥肯茲表示，在最近的兩次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間，北海油氣運(yùn)營(yíng)商大幅削減了成本，加上當(dāng)前強(qiáng)勁的大宗商品價(jià)格，將使油氣運(yùn)營(yíng)商的現(xiàn)金流增長(zhǎng)到2008年金融危機(jī)之前的水平。 

盡管短期內(nèi)會(huì)產(chǎn)生大量現(xiàn)金流，但英國(guó)北海地區(qū)的油氣運(yùn)營(yíng)商面臨著未來(lái)油氣田開(kāi)發(fā)計(jì)劃和納稅義務(wù)的不確定性，因?yàn)橛?guó)有望在2050年前實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零碳排放經(jīng)濟(jì)，并大幅減少北海油氣業(yè)務(wù)的碳排放。  

伍德麥肯茲表示，由于這種不確定性，英國(guó)政府可能在2022年批準(zhǔn)至多12個(gè)油氣項(xiàng)目，油氣運(yùn)營(yíng)商可能將今年視為提出新開(kāi)發(fā)計(jì)劃的“機(jī)不可失”時(shí)刻的最后一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)窗口。

英國(guó)北海油氣運(yùn)營(yíng)商接近歷史最高水平的現(xiàn)金流是在英國(guó)努力尋找能源危機(jī)解決方案之時(shí)出現(xiàn)，飆升的能源價(jià)格已經(jīng)造成了一些人所說(shuō)的“生活成本危機(jī)”。

“英國(guó)政府不愿意關(guān)閉這個(gè)為英國(guó)提供73%能源和滿足47%天然氣需求的油氣行業(yè)。 但有關(guān)部門最近提議，新項(xiàng)目的開(kāi)發(fā)必須通過(guò)所謂的凈零兼容性測(cè)試。”

英國(guó)政府去年12月召開(kāi)咨詢會(huì)議，尋求為油氣行業(yè)建立一個(gè)新的氣候兼容性檢查站，并表示，如果通過(guò)凈零測(cè)試，英國(guó)仍將允許在北海開(kāi)發(fā)新的油氣田。 

OGUK供應(yīng)鏈和運(yùn)營(yíng)總監(jiān)Katy Heidenreich表示：“至關(guān)重要的是，這一檢查站應(yīng)是健全的，并確保未來(lái)幾輪許可證出售招標(biāo)與英國(guó)的氣候變化雄心兼容，同時(shí)保持投資者對(duì)英國(guó)大陸架的信心。”

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

North Sea Oil Operators Set For Near Record Cash Flows

·     The North Sea still looks pretty good for oil and gas operators in the short term

·     WoodMac: UK North Sea operators will see near-record cash margins and profits this year

·     Massive cost cuts during the two most recent downturns and the current strong commodity prices will boost operators’ cash flow generation

UK North Sea operators will see near-record cash margins and profits this year as they will look to extend field lives amid high oil and gas prices in a “now or never” regulatory environment, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie says.  

The North Sea still looks pretty good for oil and gas operators in the short term, although long-term uncertainties over field development approvals and the UK’s net-zero goals continue to loom large over the industry.  

“Production growth and near record cash flows in 2022 will strengthen balance sheets and keep economists happy,” Wood Mackenzie said.

Operators in the UK North Sea are expected to have booked $17 billion in cash flows in 2021 and to book another $18 billion cash flows in 2022, per WoodMac’s analysis cited by Sky News.

The massive cost cuts during the two most recent downturns and the current strong commodity prices will boost operators’ cash flow generation to the levels last seen before the 2008 crisis, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Despite the short-term windfall in cash flow generation, operators in the UK North Sea face uncertainties about future field development plans and tax liabilities as the UK looks to become a net-zero economy by 2050 and to significantly reduce the carbon emissions of North Sea oil and gas operations.

Due to this uncertainty, as much as 12 oil and gas projects could be sanctioned by the UK government in 2022 as operators could see this year as the last window of opportunity in a “now or never” moment to propose new developments, WoodMac says.

The UK government is not willing to shut down the sector that provides 73 percent of the UK’s energy and meets 47 percent of its natural gas demand. But authorities have recently proposed that new project developments pass a so-called net-zero compatibility test.

The UK will still allow the development of new oil and gas oilfields in the North Sea if they pass a net-zero test, the government said last month as it opened a consultation seeking input on a new climate compatibility checkpoint for the oil and gas industry.

“It is vital that this checkpoint is robust and ensures that future licensing rounds are compatible with the UK’s climate change ambitions while maintaining investor confidence in the UK Continental Shelf,” said Katy Heidenreich, Supply Chain & Operations Director at OGUK.  

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