據(jù)美國油價網(wǎng)2021年12月15日報(bào)道，全球著名信用評級機(jī)構(gòu)穆迪公司周三表示，中期內(nèi)油價可能保持在每桶60美元以上。  

據(jù)穆迪公司預(yù)測，國際油價將維持在50美元-70美元的中期區(qū)間的中間值以上。 

在12月15日發(fā)布的一份新報(bào)告中，穆迪公司表示，由于價格保持穩(wěn)定，其2022年的全球能源前景穩(wěn)定。 然而，成本正在上升，這將限制石油公司的收益。  

穆迪表示：“在2021年出現(xiàn)大幅反彈以后，油氣生產(chǎn)商收益的漲勢在2022年將更加有限，供需平衡更加合理，但成本也將上升。”

上周，惠譽(yù)國際評級公司上調(diào)了布倫特原油和西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI) 2022年和2023年的油價預(yù)期，以反映需求改善以及歐佩克+至少在中短期內(nèi)將繼續(xù)管理供應(yīng)的預(yù)期。

惠譽(yù)國際評級公司預(yù)計(jì)，2022年布倫特原油的基準(zhǔn)價格平均為每桶70美元，高于此前預(yù)期的每桶55美元。 根據(jù)惠譽(yù)國際評級公司的基本假設(shè)，預(yù)計(jì)明年西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油的平均價格為每桶67美元，高于此前預(yù)測的每桶52美元。 惠譽(yù)國際評級公司預(yù)計(jì)，2023年布倫特原油價格將從此前預(yù)計(jì)的每桶53美元升至60美元，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格將從此前預(yù)計(jì)的每桶50美元升至57美元。

鑒于持續(xù)供應(yīng)中斷，惠譽(yù)國際評級公司還提高了其對歐洲天然氣基準(zhǔn)——2022年荷蘭天然氣期貨交易所推出的期貨產(chǎn)品(TTF)——的假設(shè)，以及對美國亨利中心2022年-2023年天然氣價格的假設(shè)。

惠譽(yù)國際評級公司保持其對石油和天然氣價格的長期假設(shè)不變。保持長期油價假設(shè)不變，反映了惠譽(yù)國際評級公司對供應(yīng)邊際成本和能源轉(zhuǎn)型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的看法。 

惠譽(yù)國際評級公司說，“我們提高了近期和中期的油價假設(shè)，但認(rèn)識到，鑒于奧密克戎冠狀病毒變種的出現(xiàn)，大宗商品市場的形勢仍然高度不確定，這可能導(dǎo)致新一輪的封鎖和旅行限制，并可能在短期內(nèi)加劇價格波動。”

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Moody's: Higher Costs Could Cap Oil Company Earnings

Oil prices are likely to stay higher than $60 per barrel over the medium term, Moody’s said on Wednesday, as reported by LiveSquawk.

According to the credit rating agency, global oil prices will likely remain higher than the mid-point of its medium-term range of $50 to $70 per barrel.

In a new report on Wednesday, Moody’s said that its global energy outlook is stable for 2022 as prices hold firm. However, costs are rising, which will limit gains in earnings for companies.  

“Gains in earnings for oil and gas producers will be more limited in 2022, after a substantial rebound in 2021, with a more rational supply/demand balance but also rising costs,” Moody’s said.

Last week, Fitch Ratings revised up its 2022 and 2023 oil price assumptions for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to reflect improved demand and expectations that OPEC+ will continue to manage supply, at least in the short to medium term.

Fitch Ratings sees Brent Crude averaging $70 per barrel in its base case for 2022, up from $55 per barrel expected earlier. WTI Crude prices are expected to average $67 per barrel next year in Fitch’s base case scenario, up from a $52 a barrel projection before. In 2023, Fitch assumes a $60 Brent price, up from $53 per barrel, and WTI at $57, up from $50 expected earlier.

The raging agency also raised its assumptions for the European gas benchmark, Title Transfer Facility (TTF), for 2022, as well as the U.S. Henry Hub gas price assumptions for 2022-2023, on the back of ongoing supply disruptions.

Fitch left its long-term oil and natural gas price assumptions unchanged. The long-term oil price assumptions were kept unchanged and reflect Fitch’s view on the marginal cost of supply and energy transition risks.

“We have increased our near- and medium-term assumptions but recognise that the situation in the commodity markets remains highly uncertain given the emergence of the Omicron coronavirus variant, which may result in renewed lockdowns and travel restrictions and may increase price volatility in the near term,” Fitch Ratings said.