據(jù)美國(guó)彭博新聞社2021年7月16日倫敦報(bào)道，石油輸出國(guó)組織（歐佩克）預(yù)測(cè)今明兩年全球原油需求將逐步復(fù)蘇，因?yàn)樵摻M織即將達(dá)成一項(xiàng)協(xié)議，以恢復(fù)自新冠肺炎疫情大流行以來仍然關(guān)閉的原油生產(chǎn)。

　　對(duì)歐佩克原油供應(yīng)的需求將繼續(xù)攀升，將仍然遠(yuǎn)高于歐佩克目前的產(chǎn)出，到2022年下半年前將超過新冠肺炎疫情爆發(fā)前的水平。 但歐佩克表示，歐佩克在第一季度經(jīng)歷了一段停滯期，這可能導(dǎo)致全球市場(chǎng)恢復(fù)供應(yīng)過剩。

　　歐佩克在其最新一期月度報(bào)告中表示：“展望2022年，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定性突出，需要仔細(xì)監(jiān)測(cè)，以確保從疫情中恢復(fù)。”這份報(bào)告首次包含了對(duì)明年的詳細(xì)估計(jì)。

　　這種喜憂參半的前景符合歐佩克及其盟友的計(jì)劃，即逐步恢復(fù)他們?nèi)栽谕．a(chǎn)的大量原油產(chǎn)量，從本月到年底每月恢復(fù)40萬(wàn)桶/天的產(chǎn)量。 在這個(gè)增產(chǎn)路線圖獲得批準(zhǔn)之前，歐佩克必須首先解決阿聯(lián)酋和沙特阿拉伯之間的爭(zhēng)端。

　　阿聯(lián)酋和沙特阿拉伯在解決阿聯(lián)酋稱這是不公平的低產(chǎn)量限制方面取得了進(jìn)展。 如果他們能克服痛苦的僵局，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟就能繼續(xù)重新啟動(dòng)備用原油產(chǎn)能。

　　李峻 編譯自 彭博新聞社

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC forecasts pre-pandemic oil demand will return in 2022

　　OPEC forecast a gradual recovery in demand for its crude this year and next, as the group closes in on a deal to revive the production still shuttered since the pandemic.

　　The need for supplies from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will continue to climb, remaining well above the group’s current output and exceeding pre-virus levels by the second half of 2022. But it will go through a lull in the first quarter that could see the global market return to surplus, the group indicated.

　　“Looking ahead to 2022, risks and uncertainties loom large and require careful monitoring to ensure the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic,” OPEC said in its monthly report, which contained the first detailed estimates for next year.

　　The mixed outlook fits with plans by OPEC and its allies -- yet to be ratified -- to gently restore the vast amounts of production they still have offline in monthly tranches of 400,000 barrels a day. Before that road map can be approved, the group must first resolve a spat between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

　　The two countries have made progress in resolving a dispute over what the UAE says is an unfairly low output limit. If they can overcome the bitter impasse, the coalition can proceed with restarting the idled barrels.

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