據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2021年7月17日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于油價(jià)繼續(xù)上漲，全球石油需求回升到新冠肺炎疫情大流行前的水平，人們可能會(huì)購買電動(dòng)汽車(EV)，以替代昂貴的燃料成本。 國際能源署(IEA)在一份報(bào)告中表示，油價(jià)上漲預(yù)計(jì)將鼓勵(lì)人們放棄傳統(tǒng)汽車，轉(zhuǎn)而使用電動(dòng)汽車。 然而，這可能不利于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇。
今年7月，由于更高的需求和歐佩克+為提高石油基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格而減產(chǎn)，油價(jià)達(dá)到每桶77美元，燃油價(jià)格不斷上漲的威脅令仍在克服Covid-19疫情經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊的消費(fèi)者感到擔(dān)憂。
IEA在報(bào)告中說明了這種情況：“雖然油價(jià)處于這樣的水平可能會(huì)加快運(yùn)輸部門電氣化的步伐，有助于加速能源轉(zhuǎn)型，但也可能拖累經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，尤其是拖累新興國家和發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。”
由于疫苗接種在全球范圍內(nèi)的推廣速度加快，限制正在放松，夏季的公路和航空旅行也在增加，全球石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將在今年全年繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，到2022年前達(dá)到新冠肺炎疫情大流行前的每天1億桶的水平。 事實(shí)上，在世界上的一些地區(qū)，如中國和印度，石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將超過大流行前的水平，這是因?yàn)檎麄€(gè)區(qū)域的石油需求將在未來十年內(nèi)繼續(xù)增加。
IEA警告歐佩克+，如果不減少減產(chǎn)以恢復(fù)各成員國的正常生產(chǎn)，以配合全球需求的增長(zhǎng)，這可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致全球油價(jià)上漲并導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不穩(wěn)定。
然而，由于前一段時(shí)間阿聯(lián)酋和沙特阿拉伯在產(chǎn)量增加問題上存在爭(zhēng)議，歐佩克的增產(chǎn)速度低于預(yù)期。 歐佩克+目前預(yù)計(jì)8月份成員國原油產(chǎn)量將日增約40萬桶。
IEA的這份報(bào)告基于安永會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所 6月份的AI分析，該分析指出，電動(dòng)汽車的繁榮來得比預(yù)期早得多，到2033年前，電動(dòng)汽車的銷量預(yù)計(jì)將超過傳統(tǒng)汽車。 特別是現(xiàn)在，作為清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型的一部分，英國等幾個(gè)歐洲國家正計(jì)劃最早從2030年起禁止銷售汽油和柴油汽車。
隨著許多大公司支持電動(dòng)汽車，亞馬遜、美國郵政署和聯(lián)合航空公司都宣布了新的電動(dòng)汽車車隊(duì)，而福特、大眾和通用汽車(GM)增加了對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車生產(chǎn)的投資，電動(dòng)汽車數(shù)量和與電動(dòng)汽車相關(guān)的股票將在今年夏天飆升。
此外，由于電動(dòng)汽車的普及比預(yù)期的要快，更高的產(chǎn)量水平對(duì)其他行業(yè)產(chǎn)生了積極的連鎖效應(yīng)，這意味著制造業(yè)所需的金屬開采業(yè)前景看好。
從長(zhǎng)期來看，銅需求量預(yù)計(jì)將從2020年的30萬噸左右增加到2040年的400萬噸以上。 此外，到2040年，電池生產(chǎn)行業(yè)將占鎳需求量的60%。
由于對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車生產(chǎn)至關(guān)重要的礦物的開采將增加，幾家公司將投資轉(zhuǎn)向國內(nèi)，以滿足綠色政策預(yù)期。 例如，通用汽車本月宣布與熱控資源公司建立合作關(guān)系，從美國國內(nèi)采購成本更低的鋰，用于其電動(dòng)汽車電池。 他們希望使用美國產(chǎn)的鋰將增加就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，減少他們的碳足跡。
隨著電動(dòng)汽車熱潮的臨近，不斷上漲的油價(jià)勢(shì)必加劇消費(fèi)者需求的變化，消費(fèi)者從汽油和柴油汽車轉(zhuǎn)向更便宜的電動(dòng)汽車只是一個(gè)時(shí)間問題。 由于電動(dòng)汽車市場(chǎng)的迅猛發(fā)展，其股票也將大幅上漲，對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車零部件至關(guān)重要的礦產(chǎn)品價(jià)格也將上漲。
李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)
原文如下：
High Oil Prices Could Fuel EV Adoption
As oil prices continue to rise and global demand is bouncing back to pre-pandemic levels, people could be buying into electric vehicles (EV) as an alternative to expensive fuel costs. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that rising oil prices are expected to encourage people to shift away from traditional vehicles and increase the uptake of EVs. However, this could be detrimental to the recovery of the global economy.
With oil prices hitting $77 a barrel this July, due to higher demand and OPEC+ production cuts aimed at raising the benchmark price of oil, the threat of ever-increasing fuel prices is worrying for consumers who are still overcoming the economic hit of the pandemic.
The IEA stated of the situation, “While prices at these levels could increase the pace of electrification of the transport sector and help accelerate energy transitions, they could also put a drag on the economic recovery, particularly in emerging and developing countries.”
As the vaccination rollout is accelerating across the globe, restrictions are easing, and road and air travel are picking up over the summer months, global oil demand is expected to continue to rise throughout 2021, to hit pre-pandemic levels of 100 million bpd by 2022. In fact, in some areas of the world such as China and India, oil demand is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels, as the oil need across the region will continue to rise over the next decade.
The IEA has warned OPEC+ that if it does not reduce cuts to resume normal production across member states, in line with the global demand increase, this could lead to economic instability due to rising fuel prices worldwide.
However, at present, production levels are being increased slower than expected by OPEC due to challenges in organizational talks, with disputes between the UAE and Saudi Arabia around production increase levels. OPEC+ is currently expected to increase production across member states by around 400,000 bpd in August.
This report builds upon the Ernst & Young AI analysis from June that stated the EV boom is coming much earlier than anticipated, with EV sales expected to surpass those of traditional vehicles by 2033. Particularly as several countries across Europe, such as the U.K., are planning a ban on the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles from as early as 2030 as part of the clean energy transition.
With many major companies backing EVs, with Amazon, the United States Postal Service, and United Airlines all announcing new EV fleets, while Ford, Volkswagen, and General Motors (GM) increase investments in EV production, electric vehicle and EV related stocks are set to soar this summer.
And thanks to the sooner than expected uptake of EVs, greater production levels have a positive knock-on effect on other sectors, meaning mining for metals required for manufacturing looks promising.
In the longer term, copper demand is expected to increase from around 300,000 t in 2020 to over 4 Mt in 2040. In addition, the battery production industry will account for 60 percent of nickel demand through 2040.
As mining for minerals vital for EV production is set to increase, several companies turn their investments inwards in an attempt to meet green policy expectations. For example, GM announced a partnership with Controlled Thermal Resources this month, to source lower-cost lithium from within the U.S. for use in its EV batteries. They hope the use of American lithium will increase job opportunities and reduce their carbon footprint.
With the EV boom looming and ever-increasing oil prices set to add to the shift in consumer demand, it is only a matter of time until customers move away from petrol and diesel vehicles to cheaper-to-run electric alternatives. And as the EV market soars so shall its stocks, as well as those of minerals vital for EV components.
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