???? 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)3月18日消息：國(guó)際能源署(IEA)在一份新報(bào)告中表示，由于燃料效率的提高和電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的日益普及，全球汽油可能已達(dá)到頂峰，并指出這些趨勢(shì)抵消了新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體流動(dòng)性的增長(zhǎng)。

????這份展望未來(lái)五年的報(bào)告還指出，由于政府政策支持更加強(qiáng)勁，有利于可再生能源和行為的改變，石油需求峰值可能即將到來(lái)。

????IEA負(fù)責(zé)人Fatih Birol說(shuō)：“ 新冠肺炎危機(jī)導(dǎo)致了全球石油需求的歷史性下降，但這種下降不一定會(huì)持續(xù)。實(shí)現(xiàn)有序的石油過(guò)渡對(duì)于實(shí)現(xiàn)氣候目標(biāo)至關(guān)重要，但這需要政府做出重大政策調(diào)整以及行為方式的加速轉(zhuǎn)變。否則，從現(xiàn)在到2026年，全球石油需求每年都會(huì)增加。”

????IEA預(yù)計(jì)，在缺乏更強(qiáng)有力的能源政策的情況下，到2026年全球石油需求將增長(zhǎng)約1000萬(wàn)桶/天，其中一半將來(lái)自中東關(guān)閉的產(chǎn)能。這將再次增加歐佩克在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上的影響力，代價(jià)是美國(guó)頁(yè)巖鉆探商需要更高的油價(jià)才能恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)。

????然而，所需的一些額外石油供應(yīng)將不得不來(lái)自新的產(chǎn)能。根據(jù)IEA數(shù)據(jù)，新產(chǎn)能約為500萬(wàn)桶/天。不過(guò)，該機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為目前不必著急，因?yàn)樵谝咔榇罅餍衅陂g，石油閑置產(chǎn)能約為900萬(wàn)桶/天。

????Birol表示，盡管石油需求在增加，但沒(méi)有任何一家油氣公司會(huì)不受到清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型的影響，因此，該行業(yè)的每個(gè)部門(mén)都將需要考慮如何應(yīng)對(duì)，因?yàn)樵谕苿?dòng)全球凈零排放勢(shì)頭不斷增強(qiáng)的情況下，減排是化石燃料行業(yè)面臨的最大問(wèn)題。

????馮娟 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

????原文如下：

????IEA: Gasoline Demand May Never Fully Recover

????Global gasoline may have peaked, thanks to fuel efficiency gains and the growing popularity of electric vehicles, the International Energy Agency said in a new report, noting that these trends offset growth in mobility in emerging economies.

????The report, which looks at the next five years, also suggests peak oil demand may be near, thanks to stronger government policies—if they materialize—in favor of renewable energy, and behavioral changes.

????“The Covid-19 crisis caused a historic decline in global oil demand – but not necessarily a lasting one,” IEA’s chief, Fatih Birol, said. “Achieving an orderly transition away from oil is essential to meet climate goals, but it will require major policy changes from governments as well as accelerated behavioural changes. Without that, global oil demand is set to increase every year between now and 2026.”

????In the absence of stronger energy policies, the IEA projects global oil demand growth of some 10 million bpd by 2026, half of which would come from the Middle East from shut-in capacity. This would once again increase OPEC’s clout on international markets at the expense of U.S. shale drillers, who need higher oil prices before they return to production growth.

????Some of the additional supply of oil that will be needed will have to come from new production capacity, however. According to the IEA, this new production capacity is around 5 million bpd. There is no rush, however, because right now, amid the pandemic, there is some 9 million bpd in spare oil production capacity, the agency noted.

????Even with demand for oil on the rise, however, no part of the industry will remain untouched by the energy transition, Birol said.

????“No oil and gas company will be unaffected by clean energy transitions, so every part of the industry needs to consider how to respond as momentum builds behind the world’s drive for net-zero emissions,” he said, noting things like carbon capture and methane emission reduction among the biggest issues facing the fossil fuel industry.

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