據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶6月13日?qǐng)?bào)道，近日，全球研究和咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mackenzie）表示，到2050年，全球煉油行業(yè)的低碳?xì)湫枨罂赡苓_(dá)到5000萬(wàn)噸/年。

煉油領(lǐng)域是氫能應(yīng)用最大的市場(chǎng)之一，2020年約占3200萬(wàn)噸/年，占全球氫需求的30%～35%。氫處理和氫裂解化是煉油行業(yè)消耗超90%氫氣的主要煉油工藝，分別用于減少成品中的硫含量和提高運(yùn)輸燃料的產(chǎn)量。

然而，煉油過(guò)程中65%以上的氫需求是由催化重整和乙烯裂解副產(chǎn)品提供的氫來(lái)滿足；這不太可能被低碳?xì)錃馑〈Ｈ魏螝涠倘倍伎梢酝ㄟ^(guò)氣基蒸汽甲烷重整和煤炭目的性生產(chǎn)來(lái)解決，這兩種方式合計(jì)約占煉油廠氫需求的32%。

伍德麥肯茲研究總監(jiān)古普塔表示，如果低碳?xì)渚哂谐杀靖?jìng)爭(zhēng)力，并且隨著時(shí)間的推移政策支持不斷發(fā)展，低碳?xì)溆锌赡苋〈鷮Ｓ脷渥鳛樵稀５?050年，該領(lǐng)域低碳?xì)涞臐撛谌蚴袌?chǎng)規(guī)模可能達(dá)到1000萬(wàn)噸/年，從而使全球范圍1和范圍2的煉油廠碳排放量減少10%或1億噸/年。他補(bǔ)充道，但真正的改變者是在燃燒應(yīng)用中替代化石燃料來(lái)產(chǎn)生熱量和蒸汽。這將為煉油中的低碳?xì)涮峁└蟮氖袌?chǎng)，到2050年，潛在市場(chǎng)規(guī)模將達(dá)到4000萬(wàn)噸/年，碳排放量減少高達(dá)3億噸/年，約25%。因此，到2050年，煉油行業(yè)對(duì)低碳?xì)涞臐撛诳傂枨罂赡芨哌_(dá)5000萬(wàn)噸/年。

為了進(jìn)一步脫碳，煉油商將不得不考慮更多的低碳技術(shù)，如電加熱、碳、主要碳排放設(shè)施的捕獲和存儲(chǔ)以及生物質(zhì)氣化。煉油企業(yè)將不得不采用可再生能源，使用低碳原料和產(chǎn)品。這些解決方案的組合需要解決這個(gè)復(fù)雜的問(wèn)題。

為了使低碳?xì)渑c專用的化石燃料氫具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，需要降低成本和高碳價(jià)。成本很重要，因?yàn)闅錃馍a(chǎn)占煉油廠可變運(yùn)營(yíng)成本的10%～25%。此外，高碳價(jià)和相關(guān)的排放懲罰可能成為從化石燃料氫轉(zhuǎn)向低碳?xì)涞闹饕?qū)動(dòng)力。

在當(dāng)前天然氣/液化天然氣價(jià)格居高不下且波動(dòng)劇烈的情況下，以及地緣政治沖突之后，綠色氫比基于化石燃料的灰色氫便宜。因此，有市場(chǎng)機(jī)會(huì)使氫供應(yīng)來(lái)源多樣化，以減少排放并支持能源安全。

在燃燒應(yīng)用的情況下，更高的熱值和更低的排放使低碳?xì)涑蔀橛形Φ奶娲贰１M管燃燒提供了更大的市場(chǎng)，但低碳?xì)湫枰獙?shí)現(xiàn)更低的成本，或者需要更高的碳價(jià)格才能在燃燒領(lǐng)域競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，而不是與專用氫競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

假設(shè)大宗商品價(jià)格恢復(fù)到受長(zhǎng)期基本面因素驅(qū)動(dòng)的水平，到本世紀(jì)30年代初，要使低碳?xì)湓跓捰腿紵I(lǐng)域具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，需要將碳價(jià)格提高到100美元/噸至150美元/噸。另外，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，綠色氫的成本必須低于每公斤1.5美元，才能與天然氣和燃油的燃燒相競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

除了低碳?xì)涞某杀鞠陆担叩奶純r(jià)格、財(cái)政激勵(lì)和更有力的政策支持將是加速煉油行業(yè)采用的必要條件。國(guó)家專門的氫規(guī)劃將有助于提高低碳?xì)湓谠S多行業(yè)的滲透率。

Gupta表示，從成本和排放的角度來(lái)看，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，煉油更可能向綠色氫而非藍(lán)色氫邁進(jìn)。然而，擁有低成本天然氣資源和碳封存能力的國(guó)家將有機(jī)會(huì)進(jìn)入藍(lán)色氫氣市場(chǎng)。低碳?xì)涞奶娲?jīng)濟(jì)很大程度上依賴于煤炭、天然氣、碳和可再生能源的價(jià)格，因此煉油廠和國(guó)家的具體應(yīng)用場(chǎng)景要非常具體。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

原文如下：

Low-Carbon Hydrogen Demand Could Reach 50 Mtpa By 2050

Potential low-carbon hydrogen demand from the global refining sector could reach 50 million tons per annum by 2050, says global research and consultancy group Wood Mackenzie.

Oil refining is one of the largest markets for hydrogen, accounting for about 32 Mtpa or 30-35% of global hydrogen demand in 2020. Hydrotreating and hydrocracking are the major refinery processes consuming over 90% of hydrogen in the refining sector, and they are used to reduce sulfur from finished products, and to increase yield of transport fuels, respectively.

However, more than 65% of hydrogen demand in refining is met by hydrogen supplied as a by-product from catalytic reformers and ethylene crackers; this is unlikely to be replaced by low-carbon hydrogen. Any hydrogen shortfall is met by on-purpose production from gas-based steam methane reforming and coal, together accounting for about 32% of refinery hydrogen demand. 

“Low-carbon hydrogen has the potential to replace on-purpose hydrogen as a feedstock if low-carbon hydrogen becomes cost competitive and policy support develops over time. Potential global market size for low-carbon hydrogen in this segment could be up to 10 Mtpa by 2050 delivering a 10% or 100 Mtpa reduction in overall scope 1 and 2 global refinery carbon emissions,” Wood Mackenzie research director Sushant Gupta said.

“But the real game-changer is in replacing fossil fuels in combustion applications to generate heat and steam. This will provide a larger market for low-carbon hydrogen in refining with potential market size reaching up to 40 Mtpa by 2050, and up to 300 Mtpa or about 25% reduction in carbon emissions. As such, total potential demand for low-carbon hydrogen in refining could be up to 50 Mtpa by 2050,” he added.

For further decarbonization, refiners will have to consider additional low-carbon technologies such as electric heating, carbon, capture and storage on main carbon emitting units and biomass gasification. Refiners will have to deploy renewable power and use low-carbon feedstocks and products. A combination of these solutions is required to solve this complex problem. 

Both lower costs and high carbon prices are needed to make low-carbon hydrogen competitive to on-purpose fossil fuel-based hydrogen. Cost is important because hydrogen production is responsible for between 10% and 25% of refiners’ variable opex. In addition, a high carbon price and related emissions penalty could become the main driver of shifting away from fossil fuel-based hydrogen to low-carbon hydrogen.

At current high and volatile gas/LNG prices and in the aftermath of the war, green hydrogen is cheaper than fossil fuel-based grey hydrogen. So, there is market opportunity to diversify hydrogen supply sources to reduce emissions and support energy security.

In the case of combustion applications, higher heating value and lower emissions make low-carbon hydrogen an attractive alternative. Although combustion provides a bigger market, low-carbon hydrogen needs to achieve a much lower cost, or a much higher carbon price is needed to compete in the combustion sector than that required to compete with on-purpose hydrogen.

A much higher carbon price of $100/t to $150/t would be required in the early 2030s to make low-carbon hydrogen compete in the refinery combustion sector, assuming commodity prices return to levels driven by long-term fundamentals. Alternatively, green hydrogen cost must be sub-$1.50 per kilogram to compete with gas and fuel oil combustion in the longer term.

“In addition to falling costs for low-carbon hydrogen, higher carbon prices, financial incentives and stronger policy support will be necessary to accelerate adoption by the refining sector. Dedicated country hydrogen roadmaps will help grow low-carbon hydrogen’s penetration across many sectors. 

“From costs and emissions perspective, a leap towards green hydrogen rather than blue is more likely in refining in the longer term. However, countries with low-cost gas resources and CO2 sequestration capacity will have the opportunity to enter the blue hydrogen market. Replacement economics for low-carbon hydrogen is hugely dependent upon coal, gas, carbon, and renewable power prices and hence, very refinery site and country specific,” Gupta said.